Report
Patrick Artus

Why is the euro zone as a whole better perceived in financial markets than the average of its member countries?

A comparison of the ratings and interest rates of: European issuers (EU, EIB, ESM); The euro-zone country average, shows that the euro zone as a whole is perceived significantly better in financial markets than the average of its member countries. How is this possible? There are three possibilities: Investors believe that the guarantee of the strongest countries is enough to ensure that European issuers are risk-free ; and that , if necessary, a bailout would be readily forthcoming for a European issuer but not for all countries ; A group of countries can be very solve nt even though some of them are not solvent: it is logical for the rating of the countries as a whole to then be better than that of the average country; Pan-European issuers attract stronger international demand for their bonds than individual countries (easier to assess creditworthiness, more liquid debt). If investors have a better perception of pan-European issuers than of the euro-zone country average, the euro zone should borrow more via these pan-European issuers and less individually. This is the direction that is beginning to be taken.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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