Why the energy transition will be stagflationary
The energy transition: Will curb potential growth , since it implies that very large investments will not lead to additional production, but will only replace capital that must be destroyed; there is indeed a loss of potential production compared to a situation where investment would generate additional available capital, unless all the additional investment is taken from consumption, which is unlikely; Will increase inflation, first because the cost of producing renewable energy is higher than the cost of producing thermal energy, due to the intermittent nature of the production of renewable energy; and second because amortised capital is replaced by new unamortised capital : the increase in amortisation leads to an increase in the cost of capital which drives companies to increase their selling prices to increase capital income. It is therefore reasonable to think that the energy transition will lead to lower growth and higher inflation, and therefore to stagflation.