Why the growth gap between France and Germany in 2021?
In 2021, growth was much stronger in France (7%) than in Germany (3%). What accounts for this growth gap? Is it cyclical or structural? Potential explanations are: A simple catch-up effect, due to the larger fall in activity in France in 2020; More acute bottleneck, supply chain and transport problem s in Germany , given moreover the larger size of its industry; Greater actual hiring difficulties in Germany than in France; A more restrictive fiscal policy in Germany; More caution among consumers in Germany; A deterioration in foreign trade in Germany relative to France; A loss of wage earner purchasing power due to higher inflation in Germany. Among these candidate explanations for France’s markedly higher growth than Germany ’s in 2021 , the following are likely : The catch-up effect after 2020, which has been greater in France; Hiring difficulties, which are more pronounced in Germany; Household precautionary savings, which are higher in Germany.