Report
Patrick Artus

Why the growth gap between France and Germany in 2021?

In 2021, growth was much stronger in France (7%) than in Germany (3%). What accounts for this growth gap? Is it cyclical or structural? Potential explanations are: A simple catch-up effect, due to the larger fall in activity in France in 2020; More acute bottleneck, supply chain and transport problem s in Germany , given moreover the larger size of its industry; Greater actual hiring difficulties in Germany than in France; A more restrictive fiscal policy in Germany; More caution among consumers in Germany; A deterioration in foreign trade in Germany relative to France; A loss of wage earner purchasing power due to higher inflation in Germany. Among these candidate explanations for France’s markedly higher growth than Germany ’s in 2021 , the following are likely : The catch-up effect after 2020, which has been greater in France; Hiring difficulties, which are more pronounced in Germany; Household precautionary savings, which are higher in Germany.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch