Will Emmanuel Macron be saved by the oil price?

The fall in the oil price in late 2018 will boost real wages and demand in France until the end of 2019. The rebalancing of the oil market should lead to an upturn in the price in late 2019 and in 2020, but we can hope that in 2020 the reforms (labour market, vocational training, taxes, apprenticeship, etc.) will start having positive effects on growth in France. The fall in the oil price should therefore prevent a major decline in growth in France in 2019, which would have led to an even greater fall in Macron’s popularity and a rejection of the reforms.