Report
Patrick Artus

Would it make sense to completely loosen the euro zone’s budgetary constraints?

The euro zone has an external surplus and therefore a savings surplus, which might suggest that the euro-zone countries could increase their fiscal deficits. But this external surplus stems solely from Germany and the Netherlands; the other euro-zone countries reduced their domestic demand to eliminate their external deficits when capital mobility between the euro-zone countries disappeared . Germany and the Netherlands are not asking f or a more expansionary fiscal policy. So would a more expansionary fiscal policy in the other euro-zone countries be acceptable? It would be very dangerous: Because of the absence of capital mobility, these countries would not be able to finance the external deficit that would result from the fiscal deficit; Fiscal solvency would no longer be met, leading to the risk of a rise in interest rates; Supply-side problems now outweigh demand-side problems in the euro-zone countries, which was not the case during the euro-zone crisis.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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