ADYEN (Buy, TP: EUR1,800 (from EUR1,850), +33%) Ayden - H2 / 2023 outlook: Macro uncertainties, but a helping hand from NII?
While we see more limited risk into H2 22 numbers (Feb 8th), heavy indexing to discretionary spend means macro uncertainty is perhaps the the key investor concern on Adyen looking into 2023. This uncertainty, along with USD weakness since our Nov-22 initiation, leads us to trim top line estimates (2-3%). As an offset, however, we layer in meaningful interest income (NII) to reflect expectations that Adyen will start to earn market rates on some (or perhaps most) of the EUR5.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet.Adyen NV, formerly Adyen BV, is provider of mobile, online and point-of-sale (POS) payment solutions based in the Netherlands. It operates an online platform enabling merchants to accept payments internationally and from all sales channels, such as online shops, mobile payments from applications and Websites, and POS, such as countertops, mobile terminals, tablets and cash registers, among others. The platform covers the entire payment chain, including technical, contractual, reconciliation and settlement processes. The platform is available in the form of ready-to-use payment pages (HPP), application programming interface (API), and client-side encryption solution (EE). The Company's customers include Mango, KLM, Netflix, Superdry, Uber, Groupon and Crocs, among others. It has offices in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Belgium, Brazil, China, Australia, Mexico, Singapore, Spain, Sweden and the United States.
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