Report
Soomit Datta
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PYPL US (BUY, TP: $85, +24%) ADYEN (BUY, TP: EUR1,700) SQ US (Neutral, TP: $70) Real Time Payments: Risks for Visa/Mastercard, implications for PSPs - Global learnings

We continue our series of Deep dives into Payments (see previous: Unified Commerce, and Rise of the Merchants) with a look at Real Time Payment (RTP) developments. Adoption has been rapid on a global basis, notably at the consumer level in markets like Brazil, though is a significant laggard in the US. Momentum here is, however, slowly building through FedNow (launched only in 2023) with banks/FIs stalling, but with consumer demand we think high and with a Visa/Mastercard interchange settlement (early 2025 we expect) which should support tender steering and funnel consumers to lower cost real-time transactions; developing commerce networks (fintechs like Cash App, Klarna; influential merchants like Starbucks) can also support this trend.
Underlyings
Adyen NV

Adyen NV, formerly Adyen BV, is provider of mobile, online and point-of-sale (POS) payment solutions based in the Netherlands. It operates an online platform enabling merchants to accept payments internationally and from all sales channels, such as online shops, mobile payments from applications and Websites, and POS, such as countertops, mobile terminals, tablets and cash registers, among others. The platform covers the entire payment chain, including technical, contractual, reconciliation and settlement processes. The platform is available in the form of ready-to-use payment pages (HPP), application programming interface (API), and client-side encryption solution (EE). The Company's customers include Mango, KLM, Netflix, Superdry, Uber, Groupon and Crocs, among others. It has offices in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Belgium, Brazil, China, Australia, Mexico, Singapore, Spain, Sweden and the United States.

PayPal Holdings Inc

PayPal Holdings is a technology platform and digital payments company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. The company's combined payment solutions include its PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom and iZettle products and services. PayPal's payment solutions enable the company's customers to send and receive payments. PayPal helps merchants and consumers connect, transact, and complete payments, whether they are online, on a mobile device, in an app, or in person. The company provides proprietary payment solutions accepted by merchants that enable the completion of payments on the company's Payments Platform on behalf of its customers.

Square Inc. Class A

Square is a commerce ecosystem that combines software with hardware to enable sellers to turn mobile devices and computing devices into payment and point-of-sale solutions. With the company's offering, a seller can accept payments via magnetic stripe, Europay, MasterCard, and Visa, or Near Field Communication; or online via Square Invoices, Square Virtual Terminal, or the seller's website or app. Also, sellers can gain access to reporting and analytics, next-day settlements, digital receipts, payment dispute and chargeback management, security, and Payment Card Industry compliance. The company's Cash App enable individuals to send and receive money electronically to and from individuals and businesses.

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New Street Research
New Street Research

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Analysts
Soomit Datta

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