New Street Research - Airtel Africa (AAF) ... Nigerian Telcos Solid underlying top line and KPIs, mixed EBITDA; Q3 23 review

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New Street Research

Chris Hoare

EUR 9179.00 For Business Accounts Only

Nigerian Telcos Solid underlying top line and KPIs, mixed EBITDA; Q3 23 review

Market service revenue growth slightly slowed but remained robust in Q3. Both MTN and AAF managed to grow underlying service revenue just above 20% YoY, which is a solid performance given the current macro-economic pressures and the absence of price increases.

23/11/2023 1 EN

Underlyings

Airtel Africa

Airtel Africa PLC Formerly known as Airtel Africa Ltd. Airtel Africa PLC is a United Kingdom-based provider of telecommunications and mobile money services. The Company offers an integrated suite of telecommunications solutions, including mobile voice and data services as well as mobile money services both nationally and internationally. It offers traditional mobile voice services, with a primary focus on data and non-voice services through its third generation (3G) and fourth generation (4G) networks. It also offers mobile money services under its Airtel Money brand to customers in all of the Company's 14 countries of operation in Africa, primarily in East Africa and Central and West Africa. The mobile voice business line comprises pre- and post-paid wireless voice services, international roaming and fixed-line telephone services. The mobile data business line comprises data communications services, including second generation (2G), 3G and, increasingly, 4G data services, and other value added services (VAS).

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GB00BKDRYJ47 London Stock Exchange United Kingdom

MTN Nigeria Communications Plc

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New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

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Analysts

Chris Hoare

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Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line but slower EBITDA; positive message on HoldCo cash

Airtel Africa has published a decent set of Q4 results. Top line performance remained strong, service revenue growth in local currency came in above consensus expectations and above our expectations. EBITDA trends slowed (but remained decent given the macro context in Q1) and margins came in 1pp below consensus and us.

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MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 24 Quick Take: Strong top line, weak EBITDA/bottom line (as expected), cutting capex with negative implication for IHS

MTN Nigeria has reported a mixed set of results. Top line was quite strong, but EBITDA and the bottom line came in under pressure (as expected), driven mainly by the Naira devaluation in Q1. The company is cutting capex for this year.

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Nigerian Telcos Still weathering the (macro) storm

Nigerian telcos continue to perform well from a top line and KPIs perspective. Market service revenue growth accelerated in Q4 with both MTN and AAF growing underlying service revenue by 25% YoY.

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Nigerian Telcos Solid underlying top line and KPIs, mixed EBITDA; Q3 23 review

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: GBP1.5, +42%) Q4 24: Decent, Solid top line but slower EBITDA; positive message on HoldCo cash

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 24 Quick Take: Strong top line, weak EBITDA/bottom line (as expected), cutting capex with negative implication for IHS

Nigerian Telcos Still weathering the (macro) storm

Bible 1Q24 – Foundries: leading-edge strong; Trailing-edge correction playing out.

VEON (Buy, TP: $40, +55%) Thoughts after the call

Reddit (RDDT, Neutral, $54 target) Data licensing tracking our base case after OpenAI deal

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