Bible 3Q24 - Smartphones: Sluggish demand; 5G cycle resumes; iPhone missed & we see further downside.

Demand is sluggish, with the 2024 and 2025 outlooks implying slight unit growth after 2022 & 2023 down 13% & 4% respectively. With saturation and elongating replacement cycles, we see that as a best case. The December quarter iPhone guide missed consensus expectations, and we expect further downside. Replacement cycles are elongating, share gains in China have stalled, and recent datapoints support our view (Apple lowering iPhone 16 production plans). Semi revenues are back to secular growth, driven by content. This is in expectations.

Wolfspeed: are margins in materials collapsing, or about to collapse?

Wolfspeed’s gross margin declined 16pts year-on-year in its most recent quarter. We analyze potential moving parts in today’s one slider

Wolfspeed 1FQ25: Margin pressure, substrate oversupply.Lack of scale is a growing concern. Neutral, $10

Wolfspeed reported 3Q24 (1FQ25) yesterday. Please see the link below for our take on the print.

AMD post-3Q24 model update

Tele Columbus Model review post-earnings & management call

Earlier today, we published our review of TeleColumbus’ results. Following the earnings call and speaking with management, we now update our model and run through the changes to estimates in this note.

SCOTUS Takes Up Legal Challenge to USF but Bigger Existential Threat Looms

Late last week, the Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal of 5th Circuit decision holding that the current Universal Service Framework is unconstitutional. In this note, we review the 5th Circuit decision, provide guidance on the likely Supreme Court outcome (and data points to watch along the way that might cause us to change our views), but also analyze other events that could be more even more disruptive to the current USF Framework.