Bible 3Q24 - Smartphones: Sluggish demand; 5G cycle resumes; iPhone mi...

Demand is sluggish, with the 2024 and 2025 outlooks implying slight unit growth after 2022 & 2023 down 13% & 4% respectively. With saturation and elongating replacement cycles, we see that as a best case. The December quarter iPhone guide missed consensus expectations, and we expect further downside. Replacement cycles are elongating, share gains in China have stalled, and recent datapoints support our view (Apple lowering iPhone 16 production plans). Semi revenues are back to secular growth, dr...

Wolfspeed: are margins in materials collapsing, or about to collapse?

Wolfspeed’s gross margin declined 16pts year-on-year in its most recent quarter. We analyze potential moving parts in today’s one slider

Wolfspeed 1FQ25: Margin pressure, substrate oversupply.Lack of scale i...

Wolfspeed reported 3Q24 (1FQ25) yesterday. Please see the link below for our take on the print.

Apple 4FQ24: Guide miss in line with our thesis – iPhone 16 cycle at r...

Apple reported 4FQ24 (3Q24) yesterday.

NSR Tech Policy: Google and the Antitrust State of Play

Last week and this week there was and will be significant activity in two antitrust cases against Google. In this note, we provide an update of what happened, what will happen, various outcomes investors should be thinking about and other cases involving Google and Antitrust.

iPhone 16 unlikely to drive big upgrades

Apple unveiled the latest iPhone earlier today, characterizing the device as being “built from the ground up for Apple Intelligence,” though it seems most of the Apple Intelligence features arrive later this year.

PSA Industrials / Capital Goods: Fujikura (5803 JT) Riding the AI Them...

Fujikura’s share price performance has been impressive, surging three-old YTD, boosted by AI-related data centre demand. Analyst William Nestuk reviews the FY24 Q1 performance, flags where there is upside but also notes capacity contraints.

Apple Intelligence beta: how is reception shaping up?

iPhone growth is flattening but expectations for 2025 sales now imply 6% growth, somewhat reflecting an AI refresh. In today’s work, we review the reception of key Apple Intelligence features released in iOS 18 beta, to determine whether it is legitimate at this stage to expect Apple Intelligence to foster replacement.

Bible 2Q24: Smartphones - Could consumer demand weaken while hopes for...

5 Things to Know in Investing this Week - The Trump Bitcoin Issue

Bible 1Q24 - Smartphones: mixed signals on demand; iPhone decelerating...

2025 outlook for datacenter AI, BEVs slow, Hybrids accelerate, AMD GPU...

PSA Consumer Electronics: Update on Global Smartphone and PC Shipment ...

Pelham Smithers highlights some interesting trends in the global smartphone and PC markets.

NSR Policy: Congressional Signals on ACP and Tax Bill

In this Weekend Update, we focus on the signs that Congress provided this past week on two issues that directly affect the finances of ISPs: the future of ACP and taxes. As to the ACP, we discuss how extension proponents apparently failed in efforts to include an ACP extension appropriation in the recently adopted short-term budget compromise. That should surprise no one but it indicates that an extension remains an uphill struggle. Still, that possibility remains on the table but there will be ...

PSA Macro: The Importance of Japan’s Belated Export Boom

Despite the yen steadily weakening against both the dollar and euro over past three years, Japan’s exports haven’t really taken off. However, the latest trade data suggests that this is finally happening. Pelham Smithers discusses the importance of Japan’s belated export boom.

PSA Market Strategy: How Japan Transformed from a Bear Market to a Bul...

In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.

NSR Policy: Weekend Update on Tech and Social Media Policy

In this note focused on social media, we review the heavily covered Senate hearing involving CEOs of major social media companies. As we explain, though there was bipartisan agreement that social media is causing harm to young people in the United States and that the companies who operate social media platforms could do a much better job of protecting young people from such harm, there was not the same bipartisan agreement about how to proceed legislatively to address the concerns. For example...

NSR Policy: House Hearing and Deal Speculation Raise Questions About Q...

In this media focused note, we focus on two events that occurred last week; a House hearing on sports programming rights and speculation that media mogul Byron Allen would make a bid for Paramount Global. We think both events are occurring in an environment in which linear television, the primary transmission path for sports programming and the primary assets of Paramount are in secular decline. Yet curiously, in both the hearing and the deal speculation, there was little attention paid to the...

NSR policy: Weekend Update on Telecom Policy: Prospects for Senate Tax...

In this telecom focused note we address the prospects for the Senate passing the recent House tax bill, which would provide significant financial benefits to carriers. While there is a high level of uncertainty and the dynamics are fluid, we are more optimistic about passage than we perceive the conventional wisdom to be, for reasons we discuss, including that for the business community, this provides “bird in hand” tax relief, while waiting for 2025 may prove foolhardy. But there are numerous...

NSR Policy: 2024 in Preview

Welcome back. In this special weekend update, we preview the upcoming year in TMT policy. In a typical Presidential election year, the only policy event that matters happens in November. 2024 will be different, for a host of reasons covered in this note.