AstraZeneca - Evusheld a 5% Risk to 2023 EPS (BUY, TP £125, 9 pgs)
Evusheld (COVID antibody) sales will likely collapse this year as the most dominant strains in the US and Europe now evade the drug, largely rendering it obsolete. The FDA only recently issued a statement highlighting the risk that Evusheld is ineffective against the XBB.1.5 variant, which is set to become dominant in the US, in our view. Furthermore, the current dominant variant in the US, BQ.1.1 has already been proven to evade Evusheld. BQ.1 is dominant in Europe and also evades Evusheld. Evusheld is set to sell ~$2bn in 2022 and the last published consensus had Evusheld sales of $1.4bn in 2023. We now forecast just $100m of Evusheld sales this year, which if proven to be correct would be a ~5% hit to 2023 EPS.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
AstraZeneca is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates as a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing its pipeline of small molecule and biologic prescription medicines, including targeted business development through collaboration, in-licensing and acquisitions. Co. is focused on three main therapy areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases, and Respiratory. Co. is also selectively active in autoimmunity, infection and neuroscience. In addition, Co. works across small molecules, oligonucleotides and other drug platforms, as well as biologic medicines.
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