AZN - Innovation Premium Warranted (BUY, TP £150 [£120], 14pgs)
Our new deep-dive on the P2 pipeline shows that AZN can sustain 6% CAGR sales growth to 2030 despite a number of LOE’s and as a result, we believe AZN warrants a significant innovation premium. We assume a 25% success rate for the P2 pipeline despite AZN historically delivering 30%. Moreover, there are a multitude of catalysts this year that will likely de-risk the L-T growth profile & drive significant cons. upgrades. Our analysis of the baxdrostat opportunity shows that consensus forecasts appear far too low. In addition, we expect volume upside to AZN’s oral oncology portfolio due to Part D reform through 2025. Our £150 PT assumes AZN trades on a ~30% sector premium in 2029, reflecting its stronger growth profile in the 2030’s compared to almost all its EU peers. For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )AstraZeneca is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates as a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing its pipeline of small molecule and biologic prescription medicines, including targeted business development through collaboration, in-licensing and acquisitions. Co. is focused on three main therapy areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases, and Respiratory. Co. is also selectively active in autoimmunity, infection and neuroscience. In addition, Co. works across small molecules, oligonucleotides and other drug platforms, as well as biologic medicines.
Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.
New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:
- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
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- Global Emerging Market Telecoms
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- Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
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