AZN - The R&D Engine to Bet On (BUY, TP £125 [£100], 18 pgs)
If there is one R&D engine to bet on in EU Pharma, we believe it is AZN’s. Crucially, it appears to us that the market assumes very little from this engine beyond 2025, as evidenced by AZN trading at a discount to the sector by 2025 at the current share price. Our deep dive of the P2 pipeline highlights 6 assets targeting an estimated TAM of >$30bn which could add $2.7bn to 2027 sales on a heavily risk-adjusted basis. This revenue upgrade adds 9% to our 2027 EPS. Our new analysis of Fasenra adds a further $0.5bn to 2027 Fasenra sales due to 6 upcoming P3 trial readouts. AZN is now set to grow 5% top-line and 8% bottom line 2025-27, on our numbers. This warrants a material re-rating in our view. PT increased to £125.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
AstraZeneca is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates as a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing its pipeline of small molecule and biologic prescription medicines, including targeted business development through collaboration, in-licensing and acquisitions. Co. is focused on three main therapy areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases, and Respiratory. Co. is also selectively active in autoimmunity, infection and neuroscience. In addition, Co. works across small molecules, oligonucleotides and other drug platforms, as well as biologic medicines.
Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.
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