AZN - Upgrade to BUY (TP £125 [£115], 16 pgs)
Having been neutral on AZN since Feb ‘23 based on what we believed to be a lack of catalysts & over optimistic consensus forecasts, we show that most of the EPS downgrades are in no’s & the catalyst outlook is transformed. Our deep dive on the pipeline leads us to upgrade our 2029 sales by $8bn, giving us 5% CAGR sales growth 2024-29 and 9% EPS CAGR. We conducted deep research into 6 key drugs which drive the bulk of our 7% above consensus 2029 sales forecasts. The biggest impediments to AZN shares performing from here are near-term EPS downgrades & the significant complexity of modelling the broad P3 pipeline. However, on the latter point, we believe the CMD on May 21st will prove to be very important by potentially providing long-range guidance.For access to the full note , please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
AstraZeneca is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates as a biopharmaceutical company engaged in discovering, developing, manufacturing and commercializing its pipeline of small molecule and biologic prescription medicines, including targeted business development through collaboration, in-licensing and acquisitions. Co. is focused on three main therapy areas: Oncology, Cardiovascular and Metabolic Diseases, and Respiratory. Co. is also selectively active in autoimmunity, infection and neuroscience. In addition, Co. works across small molecules, oligonucleotides and other drug platforms, as well as biologic medicines.
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