EUR 8702.30 For Business Accounts Only

Global Pharmaceuticals - Entering the R&D SuperCycle

Global Pharmaceutical R&D is in the midst of a
SuperCycle. Our proprietary analyses show that drug
output is at an all-time high, P3 asset success rates
are now >80% and drug development time has fallen
by 3 years. We discuss in detail the multitude of new
technologies that have driven this boom and show
that they have created a vast array of new
opportunities that will take years to fully exploit. We
show the market is undervaluing this opportunity and
that NOVN & AZN are best placed to benefit.

New Technologies Driving R&D Productivity – We show that
it will take years for the benefits of these technologies to
wane and the opportunities to be exploited, hence the
SuperCycle is likely to continue well into the next decade.
Drug Output Soaring – Our Proprietary R&D database shows
that the expected peak sales from drugs approved in recent
years are at an all-time high and show no sign of slowdown.
P3 Success Rates Now >80% - We arrived at a radical
conclusion after mining our database; P3 success rates are at
an all time-high. Since the beginning of 2015, the P3 success
rate was 80% (n=71) which is materially higher than most in
industry, or the market believe. We show that new
technologies and killing drugs earlier have driven this.
Average Drug Development Time 3yrs Shorter – We have
devised a methodology to assess drug development times
from the first stage of early-research to approval. We show
drugs now take 8yrs to be developed, from 11yrs in 2012.
Consequently, drugs have an extra 3 years on market and the
NPV will be materially higher as will returns on R&D.
Returns on R&D must be up – EU Pharma R&D spend has only
grown 16% over the last 5 years yet new drug revenues have
soared. An analysis of NOVN world leading R&D shows that it
generated 80% returns on late-stage R&D since 2012.