EU TELCOS: What a recessionary scenario might look like

When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.

UK Telecoms Access Review What now happens beyond 2031? BT (Buy, £2.40, + 48%)

Ofcom has published their long-awaited regulatory review setting out the framework for the period 2026-31. The good news is that in reality not much changes between now and 2031 – in line with expectations - and we see this as supportive for our Buy case on BT.

BT (BUY): Q3 25 - Our Take and model update post Openreach KPIs

The reaction to BT’s trading statement is dominated by one number: 208k line losses at Openreach. Therefore, in this note, we update our model to reflect this and run through our take on what is going on.

Intel 1Q25: Weakening outlook near term; hints on the road ahead.

CHTR 1Q25 Quick Take: Net adds a little soft; EBITDA beat

Net adds missed estimates, but the miss was less severe than some might have feared following Comcast’s results. Importantly, adds in existing markets improved year-over-year. EBITDA growth was 3.5% after adjusting for a one-time benefit. This was well ahead of expectations. Estimates for EBITDA and FCF will likely increase for the year. Repurchases are back, and the Company seemed to reaffirm a leverage target of 4.25x. Repurchase estimates should increase too with higher EBITDA and FCF.

NSR Policy Implications of Hegseth’s Woes on Key Spectrum Battle

Secretary of Defense Hegseth continues to struggle in controlling the narrative about his leadership, leading to reports that the White House is looking for a replacement (which the White House denies.) In this note we analyze the implications of those struggles for the key spectrum battle involving the Department of Defense (DoD) and the wireless industry.