SATS: a thought on the debt exchange

In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.

What does a failed spectrum auction mean for Dish

T-Mobile announced at earnings that they had failed to find a bidder for their 800MHz licenses. In this brief note we walk through what this might mean for spectrum values generally, and for Dish / EchoStar’s spectrum in particular.

EchoStar: Value increases following transactions (but takes longer to realize)

We have updated our model for the sale of DBS and increased investment in network infrastructure and subscriber growth following the capital raise. We have also updated spectrum values for recent transactions. We are more confident than ever in the value that will be realized if spectrum is sold, though the timing of a sale has likely been pushed out. Dish could build a business that is as valuable as the spectrum, but it is tough to have confidence in this.

Palo Alto Networks 1FQ25: Platformization progressing and going mainstream. Buy, $410 TP.

Nvidia 3FQ25: beat & guide up; Buy, $173 TP.

Nvidia reported 3FQ25 yesterday.

Ad Expert Call Takeaways: GOOGL Ad Tech, TTD, PMax, Advantage+, and the role of Clouds

Yesterday, we hosted a call with Jeremy Woodlee, CEO of Santa Ynez Partners, a boutique advisory firm focused on digital media and ad tech. Previously, he spent three years at Accenture leading its global relationship with Google Ads after spending 11 years at Google, and three years at Magnite (fka Rubicon Project).