Ironwood - Big Catalyst Next Month
With IRWD’s cash cow Linzess set to grow at low single digits in 2024, despite headwinds from the removal of the AMP Medicaid cap and lower commercial pricing, we now eagerly await the topline data from apra’s Phase III STARS trial in March. We conservatively forecast >$1bn (non-risk adjusted) for apra’ in SBS, but have no revenues in for apra’ in aGvHD, which is reading out P2 data in Q1 and could also lead to upgrades. In Q3, we expect to see data from CNP-104 in PBC, making 2024 a potentially transformational year for Ironwood. We increase our PT to $22 [$18], primarily due to stronger than expected Linzess cash flow, alongside other model updates.Ironwood Pharmaceuticals is a gastrointestinal (GI), healthcare company focusing on developing the treatment of GI diseases. The company's commercial product, LINZESS? (linaclotide), a guanylate cyclase type C agonists, is indicated for adult men and women suffering from irritable bowel syndrome with constipation, or chronic idiopathic constipation. In addition, the company is developing MD-7246, an oral, intestinal, non-opioid, pain-relieving agent for patients with abdominal pain associated with certain GI diseases. The company is also developing IW-3718, a gastric retentive formulation of a bile acid sequestrant for the potential treatment of refractory gastroesophageal reflux disease.
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