Post-Q2, we revise our forecasts to reflect the impact of the Medicaid AMP cap removal on Linzess sales. We expect Medicaid to grow its Linzess volume share, exerting pressure on pricing and resulting in c. 20% and 45% topline and EBIT headwinds in ’24 and ’25, respectively. Nevertheless, we believe that attention should soon shift to apra’ in SPS-IF. With strong P3 results (see HERE), we see a launch in ‘26 and forecast peak risk-adjusted sales of $800m. Our updated PT of $17/share [$22] implie...
Despite the share price reaction to the STARS readout, having contemplated it in detail, we have formed the view that it is a very solid dataset which Ironwood can use to effectively launch apraglutide in SBS-IF. We see its 1x weekly profile and strong 2x benefit vs placebo on PS reduction as being very competitive vs market leader Gattex and show that concerns on the secondary endpoints miss are overplayed given the high level of placebo response caused by the new weaning algorithm. We expect t...
With IRWD’s cash cow Linzess set to grow at low single digits in 2024, despite headwinds from the removal of the AMP Medicaid cap and lower commercial pricing, we now eagerly await the topline data from apra’s Phase III STARS trial in March. We conservatively forecast >$1bn (non-risk adjusted) for apra’ in SBS, but have no revenues in for apra’ in aGvHD, which is reading out P2 data in Q1 and could also lead to upgrades. In Q3, we expect to see data from CNP-104 in PBC, making 2024 a potentially...
Ironwood Pharmaceuticals has two key assets: 1) Linzess is a launched asset (shared with ABBV) with ~$1bn in 2023 sales, which is being managed for profitability, and, 2) apraglutide, a P3 GLP-2 for short bowel syndrome with top-line data due in March 2024. We expect apraglutide to hit ~$1bn in peak sales and drive 15% CAGR sales growth ‘23-28 despite the ~8% hit to Linzess sales in 2024 from the AMP cap removal. 2024 is a catalyst rich year & we expect significant interest in Ironwood as the ye...
IRONWOOD PHARMS.INCO. (US), a company active in the Pharmaceuticals industry, slightly increases its general evaluation. The independent financial analyst theScreener just confirmed the stock market behaviour of the title as moderately risky. At the fundamental level, theScreener confirms the rating of 1 out of 4 stars; given the more favourable environment, the title's overall rating is upgraded to Neutral even if it remains under pressure. As of the analysis date December 7, 2021, the closing ...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
MSCI ACWI, STOXX 600 Breaking Out The market continues to feed off of optimism surrounding the US-China “phase one†trade deal. Boris Johnson's UK election victory has added an additional tailwind, particularly in the UK and Europe, where the UK's FTSE 250 and the STOXX Europe 600 indexes are breaking out to all-time highs. At some point the euphoria is likely to wear off, but with continued global bullish developments, it remains our belief that pullbacks should be bought and that global e...
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