KPN (Neutral, TP: €4.0, +12%) Q4 24: B2C SR outlook is a concern – results and call summary
KPN has reported a slightly weak set of numbers with SR -0.7% light and EBITDAaL -0.2% below consensus expectations. Guidance for 2025 EBITDAaL is in-line with medium-term ambitions but c0.5% below consensus that was ahead of those targets. Adjusting for the various M&A deals, B2C SR is weaker at +1.0% y/y from +2.7% y/y, with B2C mobile +0.3% y/y from +6.7% y/y and B2C fixed +1.3% y/y from +1.0% y/y. Given the slowdown here, and the slightly disappointing EBITDA guidance, we think Neutral remains the correct rating. We remain worried about the overbuilder risk, a possible VodafoneZiggo fight back, and a lack of front book price increases. On the call KPN said FY25 B2C SR would be in the 1%-1.5% range, with the c3% SR CAGR delivered thanks to B2B and wholesale.
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