New Street Research - Megacable Hldgs SAB de CV Cert Part Ord Cons of 2 A (MEGACPO) MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable - falling Capex outlook driving FCF turnaround

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New Street Research

Soomit Datta

EUR 9284.00 For Business Accounts Only

MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable - falling Capex outlook driving FCF turnaround

We provide a quick outlook (via a key chart) on the slowing FTTH roll in 2024/25 and how we think this plays into capex, supported also by current stronger peso/$, which we see declining from 2024 helping transform FCF prospects. We also preview numbers ahead of Q4: the last quarter of big capex spend we think, with strong operational momentum anticipated, with some seasonality to EBITDA margin.

25/01/2024 1 EN

Underlying

Megacable Hldgs SAB de CV Cert Part Ord Cons of 2 A

Megacable Holdings and its subsidiaries are engaged in the installation, operation, maintenance and exploitation of cabling network distribution, internet and telephone systems.

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MX01ME090003 Mexican Stock Exchange Mexico

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New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

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Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

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Analysts

Soomit Datta

Other Reports on these Companies

New Street Research

AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neutral, MXN55, +9%) Mexican FTTH/Cable - Megacable to Neutral on Valuation, AMX top pick into Investor Day

The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.

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New Street Research

MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind stars; Earnings call feedback

Megacable reported good Q4s last night with strong broadband adds, revenue growth accelerating (to 14% y/y on core cable/FTTH) and perhaps most supportively EBITDA on core returning to 12% growth on new build operational leverage; EBITDA was flat only a couple of quarters go and the guide is for margin expansion in FY 24 and beyond (ahead of us and the market).

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Autumn for Broadband 1Q24

In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were substantially weaker in 1Q24 with all technologies seeing slower growth (except DSL which was flat). Cable was impacted the most.

EUR 9284.00

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Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

Frontier Model Update

This note focuses on changes to the model following 1Q24 results. Earlier today, we published a review of results and comprehensive thoughts following the earnings call. The changes to estimates are minor. Our long-term thesis remains unchanged. Price target is $52.

EUR 9284.00

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Jonathan Chaplin

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FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

We commented earlier on the implications of the delay in the analyst day. In this follow up, we cover: 1) the growth / margin trade-off; 2) fiber broadband ARPU growth; 3) SAC growth; 4) EBITDA growth; 5) fiber penetration; 6) ACP; 7) fiber net adds. We covered what we expect for the strategic review in our quick take on results this morning.

EUR 9284.00

May 3, 2024 May 3, 2024 1 EN

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MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable - falling Capex outlook driving FCF turnaround

AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neutral, MXN55, +9%) Mexican FTTH/Cable - Megacable to Neutral on Valuation, AMX top pick into Investor Day

MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind stars; Earnings call feedback

Autumn for Broadband 1Q24

Frontier Model Update

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

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