reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers The impossible dream – NSR GEM Top-10 March...
2025 was such a strong year for EM Telcos with the result that while remaining bullish we thought it was not plausible that 2026 would be as strong. Yet if anything the year has started better than 2025, with our picks up 18% ytd already, and up 113% since the start of 2025.
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Pricing power returns; where best; why (some) EM Telcos’ mu...
The resumption of pricing power is one of the key drivers of the rally in EM Telcos and perhaps the area where consensus is most sceptical. In this note we analyse which markets have the greatest potential for sustained pricing power, looking at key issues: affordability and regulatory and competitive structure.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers – Strong start – NSR GEM Top-10 February ‘26...
Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
Mexican Cable/FTTH Megacable the clear outperformer in Q3; Q3 25 revi...
Q3 was a slightly slower quarter for the Mexican Broadband market from a top line and EBITDA growth perspective. However, subscriber net adds remained decent, in line with the previous quarters. Financially, Megacable was the clear outperformer in Q3 with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth and widened the gap with peers.
- Chris Hoare
LatAm Telcos Outlook 2026 – Consolidation moves to broadband + Millic...
Fundamentals continue to look pretty good to us in Latin America, with market repair continuing across wireless markets, and further consolidation likely. Despite a strong 2025, valuations still look compelling across the region in our view too. Top picks: Liberty Latin America, Vivo, AMX and Megacable. We also upgrade our Millicom pt to $70.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neut...
The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.
- Soomit Datta
MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind star...
Megacable reported good Q4s last night with strong broadband adds, revenue growth accelerating (to 14% y/y on core cable/FTTH) and perhaps most supportively EBITDA on core returning to 12% growth on new build operational leverage; EBITDA was flat only a couple of quarters go and the guide is for margin expansion in FY 24 and beyond (ahead of us and the market).
- Soomit Datta
MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable - falling Capex outlook driving...
We provide a quick outlook (via a key chart) on the slowing FTTH roll in 2024/25 and how we think this plays into capex, supported also by current stronger peso/$, which we see declining from 2024 helping transform FCF prospects. We also preview numbers ahead of Q4: the last quarter of big capex spend we think, with strong operational momentum anticipated, with some seasonality to EBITDA margin.
- Soomit Datta
LatAm Telcos – 2024 Outlook: Top picks Brazil (TIM and Vivo) and Megac...
After strong stock performance in 2023 we think the Brazilians will continue to perform into 2024 on the back of solid wireless fundamentals: rising prices, revenue/EBITDA > inflation, falling capex/sales – and with IOC (tax) risks in the rear view for now. Shareholder returns are also sector leading whilst valuations are attractive (notably versus quickly falling rates).
- Soomit Datta
MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +25%) TV (Neutral, TP: $3.7, +12%) Mexico M&A -...
One year on and speculation as to a merger between Megacable and Televisa (Izzy Cable) is back, as evidenced by the past few days’ share price rally. Over the last year, Izzy has struggled operationally as Megacable has rapidly overlaid Izzy homes. We re-run a merger analysis reflecting the balance of power swing toward Megacable and the likelihood it rather than Televisa take control of the Cable NewCo.
- David Lopes
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +43%) MEGA (Neutral, TP: MXN43, +21%) TV (Neutral, ...
We round up on Mexican fixed results from the last 24 hours. Trends continue to show Megacable and Totalplay as share gainers, with Izzy (Televisa) significant share losers, exacerbated this quarter by a large subs write offs. AMX is adding subs, though at a lower rate.
- Soomit Datta
Mexican Cable/FTTH: Q3 outlook – Avoid the direct plays, but AMX looks...
We’re expecting Mexican fixed Q3 to be something of a replay of Q2 in terms of competitive dynamics/subscriber share: share gainers Megacable (Neutral) and Totalplay doing so at the expense of FCF (TPLAY 2025’s now yielding 26%), whilst Televisa (Neutral) continues to lose ground, compounded by write-offs and what looks to be a more cautious approach to client adds.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.