New Street Research - Megacable Hldgs SAB de CV Cert Part Ord Cons of 2 A (MEGACPO) MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind stars; Earnings call feedback

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New Street Research

Soomit Datta

EUR 9284.00 For Business Accounts Only

MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind stars; Earnings call feedback

Megacable reported good Q4s last night with strong broadband adds, revenue growth accelerating (to 14% y/y on core cable/FTTH) and perhaps most supportively EBITDA on core returning to 12% growth on new build operational leverage; EBITDA was flat only a couple of quarters go and the guide is for margin expansion in FY 24 and beyond (ahead of us and the market).

17/02/2024 1 EN

Underlying

Megacable Hldgs SAB de CV Cert Part Ord Cons of 2 A

Megacable Holdings and its subsidiaries are engaged in the installation, operation, maintenance and exploitation of cabling network distribution, internet and telephone systems.

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MX01ME090003 Mexican Stock Exchange Mexico

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New Street Research

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Analysts

Soomit Datta

Other Reports on these Companies

New Street Research

AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neutral, MXN55, +9%) Mexican FTTH/Cable - Megacable to Neutral on Valuation, AMX top pick into Investor Day

The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.

EUR 9284.00

April 30, 2024 April 30, 2024 1 EN

New Street Research

MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable - falling Capex outlook driving FCF turnaround

We provide a quick outlook (via a key chart) on the slowing FTTH roll in 2024/25 and how we think this plays into capex, supported also by current stronger peso/$, which we see declining from 2024 helping transform FCF prospects. We also preview numbers ahead of Q4: the last quarter of big capex spend we think, with strong operational momentum anticipated, with some seasonality to EBITDA margin.

EUR 9284.00

January 25, 2024 January 25, 2024 1 EN

Autumn for Broadband 1Q24

In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were substantially weaker in 1Q24 with all technologies seeing slower growth (except DSL which was flat). Cable was impacted the most.

EUR 9284.00

17h / 21m 17h / 21m 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

Frontier Model Update

This note focuses on changes to the model following 1Q24 results. Earlier today, we published a review of results and comprehensive thoughts following the earnings call. The changes to estimates are minor. Our long-term thesis remains unchanged. Price target is $52.

EUR 9284.00

May 3, 2024 May 3, 2024 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

We commented earlier on the implications of the delay in the analyst day. In this follow up, we cover: 1) the growth / margin trade-off; 2) fiber broadband ARPU growth; 3) SAC growth; 4) EBITDA growth; 5) fiber penetration; 6) ACP; 7) fiber net adds. We covered what we expect for the strategic review in our quick take on results this morning.

EUR 9284.00

May 3, 2024 May 3, 2024 1 EN

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MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind stars; Earnings call feedback

AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neutral, MXN55, +9%) Mexican FTTH/Cable - Megacable to Neutral on Valuation, AMX top pick into Investor Day

MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable - falling Capex outlook driving FCF turnaround

Autumn for Broadband 1Q24

Frontier Model Update

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

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