Nigerian Telcos Zero to Hero, AAF price target to £3, MTN to ZAR 190; Q4 24 review

Local currency growth was in the mid-30s again in Q4 and likely to accelerate driven by the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro. We have updated our MTN and AAF models for the Naira, diesel and mobile tariffs; our target prices go to ZAR190 and £3 from ZAR130 and £2 respectively and we maintain our Buy recommendations.

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +10%) Q4 24: Very strong top line; good support for the group

MTN Ghana has reported a strong set of Q4 results. Both service revenue and EBITDA trends came in ahead of our expectations and service revenue growth accelerated again despite the macro pressures.

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +10%) MTN Nigeria – Q4 24 Quick Take: Solid underlying trends; Expecting a recovery in margins in the medium term

MTN Nigeria has reported a good set of Q4 results. Headline revenue and EBITDA were very strong, helped by a one off in revenue. Underlying trends remained solid and came in above our expectations.

Google 1Q25: Compute is king and calls for a re-platforming

Google reported 1Q25 yesterday. See our updated perspective on cloud spending, capex and technology infrastructure.

Intel 1Q25: Weakening outlook near term; hints on the road ahead.

CHTR 1Q25 Quick Take: Net adds a little soft; EBITDA beat

Net adds missed estimates, but the miss was less severe than some might have feared following Comcast’s results. Importantly, adds in existing markets improved year-over-year. EBITDA growth was 3.5% after adjusting for a one-time benefit. This was well ahead of expectations. Estimates for EBITDA and FCF will likely increase for the year. Repurchases are back, and the Company seemed to reaffirm a leverage target of 4.25x. Repurchase estimates should increase too with higher EBITDA and FCF.