reports
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +54%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 25 Quick Take, and read ...
MTN Nigeria has reported a strong set of Q1 results across all metrics. Price increases were only implemented from March which suggests further sharp improvements going forward. The company maintained FY25 guidance, but in our view is tracking ahead.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Zero to Hero, AAF price target to £3, MTN to ZAR 190;...
Local currency growth was in the mid-30s again in Q4 and likely to accelerate driven by the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro. We have updated our MTN and AAF models for the Naira, diesel and mobile tariffs; our target prices go to ZAR190 and £3 from ZAR130 and £2 respectively and we maintain our Buy recommendations.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Underlying top line stronger than ever, EBITDA inflec...
Nigerian Telcos continued to perform very well from a top line perspective despite the absence of price increases and the macro pressures. This suggests as we wrote HERE, that devaluations tend to spur ARPU increases in local currency, and a “catch back” of lost hard $ revenue.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +42%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 24 Quick Take: Strong to...
MTN Nigeria has reported a mixed set of results. Top line was quite strong, but EBITDA and the bottom line came in under pressure (as expected), driven mainly by the Naira devaluation in Q1. The company is cutting capex for this year.
- Chris Hoare
MTNN Plc 2023FY Earnings Note - Foreign Exchange Losses Bite Deep
Strong Revenue Growth Offset by Higher Costs In its recently released 2023 full year (FY) financial result, MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) observed higher revenue figures on a Year- on-Year (YoY) basis, recording a 22.69% YoY growth to NGN2.47trn in 2023FY. Topline growth was underpinned by a robust growth in Data Revenue (+39.90% YoY to NGN1.07trn), followed by an increase in Other Revenue (+16.01% YoY to NGN445.14bn) which consists of ancillary income streams such as rental income, dig...
- Chris Hoare
African Towers and Telcos IHS offers improved terms to MTN Nigeria re...
Press reports that IHS has offered improved commercial terms to MTN Nigeria regarding the 2,500 towers previously lost to ATC. This suggests that as we previously wrote there must have been a material difference in commercial terms, with the corporate governance issue secondary. Increasing evidence of competition in contract renewals is negative for Towers and positive Telcos in EM.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Solid underlying top line and KPIs, mixed EBITDA; Q3 ...
Market service revenue growth slightly slowed but remained robust in Q3. Both MTN and AAF managed to grow underlying service revenue just above 20% YoY, which is a solid performance given the current macro-economic pressures and the absence of price increases.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Nigerian Telcos Faster quarter, strong underlying trends but larger F...
Underlying performance remained strong for both MTN and AAF which saw an improvement in top line and EBITDA trends. However, macro challenges remain and the devaluation of Naira will have a greater impact on headline numbers next quarter.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR250, +80%) MTN Nigeria – Q1 23: Good Q2 numbers; H2 ...
MTN Nigeria has reported a good set of Q2 numbers with Service Revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and relatively good subscriber net adds. MT guidance has been reiterated. H2 23 is expected to be tougher for EBITDA and capex because of the Naira devaluation.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Our thoughts on the recent macro developments in Nige...
Amongst the reforms announced by Nigeria’s president Bola Tinubu in its inaugural speech at the end of May, two could be key for the Nigerian Telcos in our view. The first one is the removal of the fuel subsidy, the second one is the change in the FX policy. The USD:NGN has been volatile in the last few days, as the currency controls that were in place to prop up the Naira against the USD are being removed.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
AAF (Buy, TP: 305p, +163%) MTN (Buy, TP ZAR250, +121%) IHS Towers (Buy...
According to Airtel Africa’s CEO, the diesel price in Nigeria has fallen 20% since the end of March. Additionally, the Nigerian press is reporting that after years of delays the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery is imminent. As a result, we see headwinds turning into tailwinds for the Nigerian Telcos and Towers and especially AAF, and medium term for IHS. This note runs through the potential for earnings upgrades across the space.
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