Insulin Wars - Novo Nordisk vs Sanofi
Novo and Sanofi are engaging in a full-blooded battle over basal insulins whilst LLY is conducting highly effective airstrikes with Basaglar. We show that Basaglar could do better than most expected (inc. Sanofi & Novo) and a Toujeo slowdown could cost Sanofi 4% of 2020 EBIT. We also show that whilst Tresiba and Levemir have had an uptick in scripts, this is likely to have come about due to higher rebates and potentially, even alleged illegal marketing practices.Tresiba & Levemir Pick-up, Is it Real? – In recent years, if a product has surged in volume within a competitive primary care segment, this was only possible through offering a material rebate. We believe that Novo have given a significant discount to achieve this volume uplift.
Novo Alleged to Have Acted Illegally – Sanofi are suing Novo for allegedly encouraging doctors to stop prescribing Toujeo & Lantus after the CVS exclusion despite the fact that both drugs would still be available to CVS clients by various means
Toujeo Weakness Could Cost 4% of 2020 EBIT – Toujeo scripts have slowed dramatically, yet consensus expects an incremental €1bn of sales 2016 to 2021. We show that if US sales growth slows to just 5% p.a. from 2018, it would lead to a 4% EBIT downgrade in 2020.
Novo-Nordisk is a global healthcare company engaged in the innovation of diabetes care. Co. also provides haemophilia care, growth hormone therapy and hormone replacement therapy. The Diabetes care business segment includes research, development, manufacturing and marketing of products within the areas of insulin, GLP-1 and related delivery systems, oral antidiabetic products (OAD) and obesity. The Biopharmaceuticals business segment includes research, development, manufacturing and marketing of products within the areas of haemophilia, growth hormone therapy, hormone replacement therapy, inflammation therapy and other therapy areas.
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