Novo - $10bn Wegovy in 2024 (BUY, TP DKK800 [750], 13 pgs)
Using a similar scrip based analysis that led us to be considerably above consensus at the beginning of 2023, we show consensus is $3bn too low on ‘24 US Wegovy sales. This would drive an ~11% consensus EBIT upgrade next year. We show Novo’s supply chain can comfortably deliver 50k new patient starts per week through Q2-Q424, generating $9.6bn in US Wegovy sales, driving our $10bn Global Wegovy sales forecast for 2024. We now forecast 31% sales & 38% EPS growth in 2024 despite assuming $1bn higher R&D & $1.6bn higher S&D. We increase our PT to DKK800 which reflects our higher near-term forecasts & conservative estimates.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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