New Street Research - Novo Nordisk (novob) Novo - $7bn Wegovy Transforms Novo (BUY, PT DKK700 [550], 24 pgs)

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New Street Research

Dominic Rose ...

Naresh Chouhan

EUR 4303.00 For Business Accounts Only

Novo - $7bn Wegovy Transforms Novo (BUY, PT DKK700 [550], 24 pgs)

New work on Wegovy has led us to increase our Wegovy peak sales to $7bn and we see a path to $10bn if Medicare reimbursement is achieved. This now drives 200bps of margin expansion by 2026 despite management guiding to a flat margin and us including $2.6bn higher SG&A spend & $1.7bn higher R&D spend 2021-26. We are now 10% ahead of consensus 2025 sales & 12% on EPS despite forecasting Chinese insulin sales half next year due to VBP. We see further sources of upside from insulin icodec (cons. at just $400m in 2026) and we exclude Alzheimer’s, concizumab, Mim-8 & the oral PCSK-9 from our forecasts. PT ↑ DKK700.
For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )

23/09/2021 24 EN

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Novo Nordisk

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New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

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Analysts

Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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Novo - $7bn Wegovy Transforms Novo (BUY, PT DKK700 [550], 24 pgs)

Novo - Still A Sell – PT Cut to DKK200 (SELL, TP DKK200 [230], 12pgs)

Novo - Why We Remain Bears (SELL, TP DKK230, 13pgs)

Thematic - 2026 Outlook - "5 More Years" (55pgs)

Besi: Another setback in Hybrid bonding adoption?

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (V): How can frontier labs fund rising compute costs?

Japanese Telcos – Q3 FY25 review: SB focusing less on customer share; this is positive

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