Novo - Collapsing Wegovy Prices is Bullish (BUY, TP DKK 1150, 16 pgs)
In this deep-dive, we show that despite our 2027 Wegovy price of just $200/mth in the US, we are ~20% above consensus on Wegovy & ~30% above cons. on Novo’s Obesity portfolio in 2030. We show why we expect pricing to collapse but that market fears on pricing are far too pessimistic. We believe Wegovy will become the US market leader by volume and benefit from step edits from 2027 onwards. We model Commercial & Medicare channels separately for both price & volume & also show compelling evidence that Novo & LLY will shut out new entrants in the late 2020’s. Our own cost/benefit analysis shows Wegovy from 2027 has broadly similar value to Ozempic, which has extremely strong market access.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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