New Street Research - Novo Nordisk (novob) Novo - Further Evidence of $4bn Wegovy in 2023 (BUY, TP DKK1100, 8 pgs)

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New Street Research

Dominic Rose ...

Naresh Chouhan

EUR 4411.00 For Business Accounts Only

Novo - Further Evidence of $4bn Wegovy in 2023 (BUY, TP DKK1100, 8 pgs)

Our Wegovy model was validated last week with the latest scrip data, in our view (see [HERE] for full analysis). It shows it is likely to sell $4bn this year in the US (cons. @ ~$2bn). The model accurately forecast weekly Wegovy doses for the 0.5mg - 2.4mg doses. More importantly, TRx for the starter dose were substantially ahead (+32%) of our assumption, signalling the possibility for further upgrades if the trend is sustained. Based on our growing confidence on the usefulness of the model, we will now publish a weekly update to track the latest scrip data against our forecasts. Given current trends, we believe the full ex-US launch will be delayed which could lead to lower S&M and higher 2023 EPS & further supports our view that Novo’s 2023 guidance is conservative.
For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )

07/02/2023 1 EN

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Analysts

Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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Novo - Further Evidence of $4bn Wegovy in 2023 (BUY, TP DKK1100, 8 pgs)

Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)

US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)

US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)

T-Mobile: Quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call

Comcast Post-1Q25 Model Update

CMCSA: Quick thoughts following the call 1Q25

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