Novo - GLP-1 Pricing to Collapse (BUY, TP DKK1300, 10 pgs)
The Novo investment thesis currently has a multitude of moving parts. On Wegovy, supply, price, duration, penetration rates & TAM are all material unknowns. On Ozempic, price, GLP-1 mkt growth & Mounjaro risk are all considerations. Then Rybelsus, Cagrisema, oral sema in obesity & icodec peak sales are all unknowns. Let alone NASH, Alzheimer’s or any other uses for GLP-1’s. HOWEVER, the body of work we have published in recent months show the clear potential for Novo to meet cons. expectations with risks heavily skewed to the upside & this is despite today’s analysis showing Ozempic growth is set to face a marked slowdown. Whilst a further guidance upgrade is probable in our view, it is unlikely until Q3 in Nov & hence we prefer NOVN in the coming months.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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