New Street Research - Novo Nordisk (novob) Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)

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New Street Research

Dominic Rose ...

Naresh Chouhan

EUR 4446.50 For Business Accounts Only

Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)

We have rebuilt our Wegovy & Ozempic models for volume, price & mix to account for the divergent dynamics by channel. We show that 1) Ozempic volume forecasts remain too high and NRx has now turned negative, 2) Mix is set to worsen dramatically for Ozempic such that 2027 group EPS growth is 0% on our numbers, 3) The Wegovy inflection implied in our forecasts is likely best case scenario w.r.t compounding & CVS, yet we are at the low end of guidance. We are modestly below cons. sales in 2025&26 with our optimistic assumptions but 14% below in 2027 due to our analysis on channel mix, IRA & pricing for Wegovy and Ozempic. We are 50% below US Ozempic consensus by 2029. Furthermore, following Friday's CEO news, we believe there is further risk to 2025 guidance.
For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )

20/05/2025 1 EN

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Novo Nordisk

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New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

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Analysts

Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)

MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)

Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)

BILI: 1Q25 Flash: Results Top Expectations Driven by Gaming

VIPS: 1Q25 Flash: Guide Largely in Line

What Does VZ/FYBR Tell Us About Convergence Deal Reviews?

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