Novo Nordisk - Cut to Sell - The Wood for The Trees (TP DKK 460)
Whilst the Wegovy scrips are scrutinised on literally a daily basis, US Ozempic softness seems to have been ignored despite Ozempic being 2x bigger than Wegovy in terms of global sales. New analysis makes us more concerned about Ozempic 2025 sales, than Wegovy. We are now 8% below the mid-point of 2025 guidance on sales & EBIT. We are 40% below consensus by 2030 on Ozempic sales, which could translate to a 16% cut to cons. group EBIT in 2030. We cut our group sales forecasts by 6-10% and EBIT by 7-17% leaving us 12% below cons. sales by 2027. The catalyst path is also unattractive so offers little support for the stock. Our DKK460 PT puts Novo at a 20% PE premium to Sanofi in 2030 & broadly in-line with AZN despite it having less LOE risk. SELLFor access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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