Novo Nordisk - Rybelsus Under-Appreciated (BUY, TP DKK 550, 14 pgs)
Our analysis of the oral antidiabetic market in addition to discussions with US docs has yielded numerous interesting conclusions. New ADA guidelines have forced deeply entrenched prescribing habits to be disrupted, favouring the SGLT-2s and Rybelsus, allowing both to grow strongly. We show that the existence of the SGLT-2 class helps Rybelsus, not hinders it. We show that docs are intensifying therapy earlier and skipping DPP-IVs altogether. We also show that Rybelsus couponing is diminishing and its net price is already 15% higher than we forecasted with further upside likely. Consequently, we are increasingly confident in our $6bn peak sales forecast now that previous concerns around pricing, SGLT-2s and market access are all largely addressed.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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