Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8pgs)
Whilst our downgrade to Sell [here] was predicated on reduced Ozempic sales & significantly below cons. forecasts, the magnitude of the ’25 profit warning has led to a material reset of our forecasts & we are now >30% below cons. EBIT in 2029. We expect the debate to now focus on valuation given we model just 5% 25-30 CAGR sales growth & sema accounts for 60% of 2030 EBIT. Worryingly, our EPS declines in 2027 having cut our sales forecasts by 4-9% & EBIT forecasts by 6%-13%. We are now 27% below 2027 cons. EPS (pre-warning). Given the lacklustre growth of both the diabetes & obesity markets, we remain of the view that pricing estimates needs to fall materially. PT cut to DKK300 but we still see downside risks given we model >2x obesity sales by 2030.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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