Novo - Wegovy – 3 More Sources of Upside (BUY, TP DKK850 [800], 15 pgs)
Following the SELECT readout, we are increasingly asked by investors what is next for the Novo investment thesis. We now identify 3 sources of upside to Wegovy consensus forecasts & increase our peak sales to $28bn. We show that, 1) Medicaid is worth $6bn in peak sales & is largely ignored, 2) The lack of Medicare access is likely to have the perverse positive impact of raising Wegovy’s net price & the IRA now has a smaller impact, & 3) Supply into 2024 is likely to be better than consensus is modelling. We also show evidence that GLP-1 use in Alzheimer’s may have a greater than expected chance of showing efficacy; 14mg sema’ reads out in AD in 2025. With our higher Wegovy forecasts & a $3.5bn increase in Ozempic sales for FLOW, we increase our PT to DKK850.For access to the full note and our Wegovy model with Medicaid market size, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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