Novo - Wegovy Stockpiling Almost $5bn (BUY, TP DKK1100, 5 pgs)
Our latest analysis shows that Novo could drive material consensus upgrades by starting to release a potential ~$5bn Wegovy stockpile. With Novo restricting Wegovy supply between Nov-21 & Dec-22, and then from May-23 onwards, they have built up a substantial stockpile of product, in our view. Our analysis of their inventory shows there is likely as much as $5bn of finished or close-to-finished Wegovy product at current US net prices. Our analysis of the supply chain and distribution strategy explains why Novo have retained such large inventories. We believe that Novo can produce consensus estimates of $9bn of Wegovy in 2024, so if material inventories are released, there could be upside to this.Please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ) for access to the full note, and to discuss our analysis & upside risk potential
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