New Street Research - Novo Nordisk (novob) Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)

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New Street Research

Dominic Rose ...

Naresh Chouhan

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Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)

Following the orfo’ P3 data, latest Wegovy scrips & rapidly faltering Ozempic growth, we conduct a wholesale review of our obesity market model, Wegovy & Ozempic scrip models & our Novo financial model. The outcome of this analysis is that we downgrade our 2030 sales by 20% and EPS by 24%. We now assume Novo only achieve a 25% obesity market share by 2030. We are 19% below consensus sales & 23% below EPS in 2030. We also provide a detailed hypothesis as to why US obesity demand growth is so lacklustre & conclude demand growth will be slow in the absence of Medicare approval. PT cut to DKK350 & we expect material cons. sales downgrades.
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22/04/2025 1 EN

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Novo Nordisk

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New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

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Analysts

Dominic Rose

Naresh Chouhan

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