Novo - 2025 Growth Sensitivities (BUY, TP DKK1150, 8pgs)

Following management commentary on sales growth in 2025, we have calculated the implied sensitivity to Wegovy supply & the potential impact on consensus group sales. We show that high-teens group sales growth implies 40% US Wegovy sales growth in 2025. This is below consensus. Given our previous analysis [here] on falling Wegovy prices but higher volumes, the CTLT deal is now the most important catalyst, in our view: even more important than the cagrisema readout, which we forecast accounts for just 27% of Novo’s obesity sales by 2030. The recent sell-off seems to reflect the growing risks on ...

Novo Nordisk - CagriSema Valuation Sensitivities (BUY, TP DKK1150)

Whilst the potential P3 data outcomes are widely understood, we are increasingly being asked what the valuation impact would be under various scenarios as investors position themselves for the upcoming readout. We assess 4 potential scenarios ranging from worst case to best case and calculate the peak sales impact, the NPV impact and what might happen to Novo’s valuation & multiple under each scenario. Based on the outcome, we see a $24bn delta in CagriSema peak sales, a -6% to +14% NPV impact & even in the worst-case Novo would be worth DKK900 & trade on 14x 2029 EPS. For access to the full...

Obesity Thematic - A Deep-Dive into Amylin

In the coming days at Obesity Week, we will see multiple datasets from amylin assets that could help to further support our belief that amylin combinations could become a material MOA in the Obesity market. Ahead of the Cagrisema P3 readout, we dig deep into the potential for amylin and show: 1) It has a superior tolerability profile, 2) Could preserve lean muscle mass and 3) Could be neuroprotective. We analyse the majority of the clinical data available on these drugs & show that the full promise of this class is yet to be fully appreciated. For access to the full note, please contact Naresh...

Palo Alto Networks 1FQ25: Platformization progressing and going mainstream. Buy, $410 TP.

Nvidia 3FQ25: beat & guide up; Buy, $173 TP.

Nvidia reported 3FQ25 yesterday.

Ad Expert Call Takeaways: GOOGL Ad Tech, TTD, PMax, Advantage+, and the role of Clouds

Yesterday, we hosted a call with Jeremy Woodlee, CEO of Santa Ynez Partners, a boutique advisory firm focused on digital media and ad tech. Previously, he spent three years at Accenture leading its global relationship with Google Ads after spending 11 years at Google, and three years at Magnite (fka Rubicon Project).