New Street Research - Orange (ORA) Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +28%) Q1 24: Good results; French KPIs not a worry, SR trends unchanged

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New Street Research

Russell Waller

EUR 9284.00 For Business Accounts Only

Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +28%) Q1 24: Good results; French KPIs not a worry, SR trends unchanged

Orange has reported a solid set of results, with EBITDA c+0.4% ahead of consensus. Guidance has all been reiterated, and cost synergy numbers for Spain have been lifted (with new additional revenue synergy numbers given, that are based on intra-company churn switching data, which makes it plausible some could be delivered in our view).

24/04/2024 1 EN

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Orange

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New Street Research

Provided by our team of experienced analysts, our work is idea driven, based on independence of thought, sector expertise, and firmly focussed on fundamentals and valuation.

New Street Research is an independent, partner-owned, research firm specialising in equity and debt research. Our equity research embraces the following sectors:

Pan European Telecom Services and Cable
US Telecoms, Cable, Satellite and Towers
Global Emerging Market Telecoms
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Pan European Telecom Services and Cable

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Analysts

Russell Waller

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New Street Research

Orange Masmovil approval: A good outcome. A compliant EC? More M&A to come

The EC has approved the Orange Masmovil merger (HERE) with remedies unchanged from the announcement in early December (HERE). We continue to be of the view that the remedy package is a good one for the operators in Spain, and indeed for the likelihood of further M&A in Europe.

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New Street Research

Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +30%) Q4 23: Good results and guidance; positive comments on capex and Digi MVNO deal

Orange has reported a very solid set of results, with EBITDA c1.5% ahead of consensus for Q4. France guidance for 2024 EBITDA has been lifted, and overall Group guidance is in-line at EBITDA and 3% ahead at OCF. Ex energy, Group EBITDA is growing at >4%. Comments on the call about the Digi remedy package are very positive for European in-market consolidation in our view.

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February 15, 2024 February 15, 2024 1 EN

Autumn for Broadband 1Q24

In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Industry net adds were substantially weaker in 1Q24 with all technologies seeing slower growth (except DSL which was flat). Cable was impacted the most.

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14h / 19m 14h / 19m 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

Frontier Model Update

This note focuses on changes to the model following 1Q24 results. Earlier today, we published a review of results and comprehensive thoughts following the earnings call. The changes to estimates are minor. Our long-term thesis remains unchanged. Price target is $52.

EUR 9284.00

May 3, 2024 May 3, 2024 1 EN

Jonathan Chaplin

Jonathan Chaplin

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

We commented earlier on the implications of the delay in the analyst day. In this follow up, we cover: 1) the growth / margin trade-off; 2) fiber broadband ARPU growth; 3) SAC growth; 4) EBITDA growth; 5) fiber penetration; 6) ACP; 7) fiber net adds. We covered what we expect for the strategic review in our quick take on results this morning.

EUR 9284.00

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Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +28%) Q1 24: Good results; French KPIs not a worry, SR trends unchanged

Orange Masmovil approval: A good outcome. A compliant EC? More M&A to come

Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +30%) Q4 23: Good results and guidance; positive comments on capex and Digi MVNO deal

Autumn for Broadband 1Q24

Frontier Model Update

FYBR: quick thoughts following the call Part 2

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