Sanofi - Stop, Look, Listen. 45% Upside (BUY, TP EUR135 [125], 17 pgs)
This is no longer the Sanofi of old. We show there is 11% CAGR EPS growth 2021-26, 6% CAGR sales growth, a burgeoning pipeline driven by a transformed R&D engine, commercial excellence & discipline in M&A. Most surprisingly in our view, Sanofi is at the beginning of an EPS upgrade cycle driven by flu vax, cost control & likely upcoming Dupixent upgrades where we now forecast €14bn in peak sales and consequently increase our PT to €135. We show that despite the market waiting for the big assets to read out, R&D is already starting to deliver with 10% of 2026 EBIT coming from new launches that we forecast will sell €2.7bn by 2026. Despite this, SAN trades on just 11.2x our 2023 EPS & a 30% discount to 2022 sector EPS. We believe Sanofi is the most obvious BUY since AZN in its early transformation many years ago.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
Sanofi is an integrated, global healthcare company focused on patient needs and engaged in the research, development, manufacture and marketing of healthcare products. Two segments make up Co.'s business: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Pharmaceuticals segment covers research, development, production and marketing of medicines, consisting of flagship products, plus a broad range of prescription medicines, generic medicines, and consumer health products. The Vaccines segment includes research, development, production and marketing of vaccines in five areas: pediatric vaccines, influenza vaccines, adult and adolescent booster vaccines, meningitis vaccines, and travel and endemic vaccines.
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