New Street Research - Telia Company AB (TELIA) Telia (Buy, TP: SEK36, +32%) Feedback from NDR in London with CFO and COO

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New Street Research

Russell Waller

EUR 9344.00 For Business Accounts Only

Telia (Buy, TP: SEK36, +32%) Feedback from NDR in London with CFO and COO

We hosted CFO Eric Hageman and COO Rainer Deutschmann in London this week. Please find feedback in the attached report. The focus remains on OCF and EBITDA growth. If Telia can deliver structural OCF at the top of the guidance range, EBITDA growth for 2024 could be c+7% y/y, which would mean EBITDA +3% better than consensus for FY24. If Telia can beat consensus EBITDA by 3% in 2024, given its multiple discount and good dividend yield it should outperform we think.

30/01/2024 1 EN

Underlying

Telia Company AB

Telia Company provides telecommunication services in the Nordic and Baltic countries, the markets of Eurasia, including Russia, Turkey and Spain. Co. has three business segments: Mobility Services, which comprises operations in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Spain; Broadband Services, which comprises operations in Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia (49.0%), Estonia and international carrier operations; and Eurasia, which comprises mobile operations in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Georgia, Moldova and Nepal. The business area also includes Co.'s shareholdings in OAO MegaFon, Russia and Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S., Turkey.

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SE0000667925 Nasdaq Nordic Stockholm Sweden

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Analysts

Russell Waller

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Telia Company AB: 3 directors

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Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Soft Q1, but limited revisions

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Cash flow volatility was not appreciated

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Jonathan Chaplin

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This note focuses mostly on model changes. Please see separate notes reviewing results and on thoughts following the earnings call. We lowered broadband adds, revenue and EBITDA. We also expect leverage to approach 4.25x by the end of the year. This likely rules out further repurchases this year, unless EBITDA is stronger than we expect. No change to thesis, though we expect Broadband stocks to be challenged for at least next few quarters. Price target is $431 (+69%).

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Telia (Buy, TP: SEK36, +32%) Feedback from NDR in London with CFO and COO

Telia Company AB: 3 directors

Telia Company (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Soft Q1, but limited revisions

Cash flow volatility was not appreciated

Wolfspeed: who could buy? At what price?

Charter Model Update

CHTR: quick thoughts following the call

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