TIMP3 (Neutral, TP: BRL17, +57%) Q4 22: Trends slowing; large step up in Post-paid subs losses
Having steered the market down ahead of results, revenue and EBITDA were 1.2% and 1.5% respectively ahead of consensus - TIM will provide FY23 targets and mid-term targets on the 14th of February as part of TI Group. Inflation continues to slow in Brazil, and growth ex-Oi remains positive in real terms for both top line and EBITDA we estimate, but trends have slowed this quarter. Post-paid net adds, however, have deteriorated again with a net 1m loss reported for Q4 (2.4m reported less 1.4m Oi disconnects) – this surely bodes well for Vivo we think both in Q4, and into 2023.
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