reports
- Soomit Datta
VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +23%) Vivo - Solid underlying Q1s – headline E...
Underlying Q1 trends remained robust at Vivo, with revenue in-line (+7% y/y growth) and headline EBITDA missing (1.5%) only due to other items in the cost base (gains/sales) fluctuating. Excluding this and underlying EBITDA of +9% y/y was steady on Q4, and comparable to TIM’s +10% (reported yesterday). Vivo’s mobile service revenue was the strongest in Brazil vs peers, offset slightly by lower fixed growth (the more volatile data/IT business slowing this quarter).
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +24%) TIM Brasil - Solid Q1s, trending ahead o...
TIM reported solid Q1 24 earnings overnight, coming in a shade of ahead of estimates (1% at EBITDA). Service revenue growth remains robust at >7% y/y, with some seasonality potentially impacting Q1 pre-pay revenue; EBITDA of +10% y/y and EBITDAaL +20% y/y is also very strong (and well ahead of 4% inflation), the latter enjoying historic lease reductions (though these are now sequentially stabilising). Q1 trends are tracking a touch above FY guide, potentially enabling further earnings uplift.
- Chris Hoare
- James Ratzer
Telecom Italia (Buy, €0.35, +58%) Piecing together the puzzle post-CMD
We recently attended the Telecom Italia CMD in person and the management dinner afterwards. Given the stock fell by 20%+, it’s fair to say the event didn’t quite go as initially planned. In this note we review the situation now the dust has settled a bit, and now we feel we have better visibility on the key drivers behind the operational forecasts and the below-the-line cash items.
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +27%) TIM B - Improving cash returns, though t...
TIM Brasil updated on its cash return policy today, targeting ~BRL12 billion of shareholder returns from 2024-26. This is a strongly improving trend (BRL2.9 billion for 2023), annualizing out at a 9% yield in Brazil (where headline interest rates are falling sharply) and we see this as very supportive for the equity when combined with the strong fundamentals. At the same time, TIM will remain net cash (ex leases) over this forecast period and we see a bigger day of reckoning coming for the Brazi...
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +27%) TIM Brasil - Solid Q4, mid-term guide hi...
TIM Brasil reported solid Q4s, with a mid-term outlook which sees consensus at the bottom of the newly guided to range for service revenue (5-6%) and EBITDA (6-8%) out to 2026 (i.e. real growth given ~3.5% inflation expectations looking forward). Given TIM’s ability to meet or beat in the past, this suggests earnings momentum can continue to be strong.
- Soomit Datta
LatAm Telcos – 2024 Outlook: Top picks Brazil (TIM and Vivo) and Megac...
After strong stock performance in 2023 we think the Brazilians will continue to perform into 2024 on the back of solid wireless fundamentals: rising prices, revenue/EBITDA > inflation, falling capex/sales – and with IOC (tax) risks in the rear view for now. Shareholder returns are also sector leading whilst valuations are attractive (notably versus quickly falling rates).
- Soomit Datta
TIM/Vivo - Maintain Buys; Solid Wireless supported by improving Tower ...
Despite the 40-45% rally YTD we continue to like the Brazilian Telco stocks. Wireless operator dynamics remain very favourable with FCF supported significantly for TIM in the near-term by Oi tower decommissioning, with a potentially broader reset for the industry relative to the Tower cos over the mid-term (part of a broader EM theme perhaps following IHS in Nigeria).
- James Ratzer
- Soomit Datta
TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL22, +33%) TIM Brasil - Investor Day feedback/ Q3s:...
TIM hosted an Investor Event in NY yesterday and which followed the earlier announcement of lifting the FY 23 dividend to BRL2.9 billion (consensus BRL2.6 billion) and the previous evening’s very strong Q3 numbers. Focus today was on FCF margin expansion, shareholder remuneration and the opportunity in B2B.
- Soomit Datta
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q2 23: Slightly slower driven by China
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q2 again driven by a slower quarter in China. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 8.5%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates, as they have been now for 3 years. With the rates cycle seemingly peaking, macro headwinds may also start to improve, and we continue to believe that EM Telcos are still not in our view priced for mid-term GDP+ growth, and rising returns.
- Soomit Datta
TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: BRL21, +45%) Vivo (Buy, TP: BRL59, +43%) Brazili...
The Annual Budget (PLOA) was on Thursday submitted to Congress in Brazil. Within the forecasts is an embedded assumption of the elimination of Interest on Capital (IOC), a form of tax deductible dividend - employed by TIM and Vivo - which drives a healthy reduction in effective tax rates. This move will likely accelerate the focus on broader Tax reform in Brazil which can be broadly seen in two parts.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
TIM (Buy, TP: BRL21, +50%) TIM Brasil - Q2 Outlook: Strong EBITDA AL ...
Ahead of TIM Brasil Q2s (after close 31 July) we highlight a chart showing the single metric we think the market should be focused on: EBITDA AL (after leases), where we expect y/y growth to accelerate despite annualising the Oi deal closure last year. We think consensus is well off the pace here setting up an opportunity for strong stock performance around earnings
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q1 23: Slowdown in India, elsewhere strong
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q1 driven by price increases in India lapping. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 9%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates.
- Soomit Datta
TIMP3 (Buy, TP: BRL21, +42%) VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL59, +34%) Brazilian T...
Despite a good run for the Brazilian telco equities of late we think there is much more to come over the next 12 months. Following some early testing of the water by the industry we now incorporate pre-paid wireless price increases into estimates noting how low spend as % income in Brazil should help prices stick (and reminds us of India); TIM is most geared into this segment and leads us to upgrade the stock to Buy, while we remain positive on Vivo and AMX (Brazil being 20% of EBITDA).
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