Egypt Banking Sector 2023: Attempting to counterbalance macro factors

Please find attached our banking sector update for 2023, in which we present: Sector Outlook, Hopes, Fears, and Picks * Sector Outlook, Hopes, Fears, and Picks * Valuation and Multiples Interbank Comparison * Market Share and Utilization * Balance Sheet * Income Statement * Capital Adequacy * Tax Law Calculation Individual Banks Fundamental Review * Commercial International Bank (COMI) * Qatar National Bank (QNBA) * Credit Agricole Egypt (CIEB)...

Egypt banks | Higher RRR: A manageable headwind; flag CAE

Higher RRR is negative, at face value, … On 22 September, the CBE hiked the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) on short-term LCY deposits by 4pp to 18.0% in effort to tighten liquidity and combat inflationary pressures. We calculate this should result in the absorption of cEGP150bn in excess liquidity from the system, which would be deposited at the CBE with no return. The RRR on FCY deposits was maintained at 10%. We expect banks will satisfy the higher liquidity requirement mainly through reducing their interbank assets (c18% of system assets) and to a lesser extent their treasury holdings (c37...

CIEB EY | Recent rally has more steam; Remain OW

Strong fundamentals coupled with a high yield. We continue to favour CAE and maintain our OW rating. CAE’s solid balance sheet and balanced credit exposure allow for the trickling down of the bulk of the impact from the potential margin expansion to total profitability. We expect RoE to stand at c23% over 2022-23e vs. 17.5%, as implied from the current market price. CAE offers a 2022e dividend yield of 12%, among the highest within our Egypt coverage. CAE trades on a 2022e P/BV of 0.83x and P/E of 3.8x (30% discount to its five-year average and 20% to CIB).BS conducive of margin expansion, des...

Negative signals for the US housing sector

Macro indicators for the construction sector, and the housing market in particular, have been poor recently. Homebuilders confidence has plummeted, housing sales and starts are stagnating at low levels. A sector so central to the economy appears to be frozen. President Trump has an idea for boosting the sector, and this would involve cutting Fed rates by 200-300bp in one fell swoop, in the hope of making the cost of mortgage borrowing bearable. His anti-Powell fury no doubt has something to do with this housing slump. It goes without saying that the Fed is not prepared to move that fast or th...

Oddo’s 2 Weeks Ahead_Friday 27 June 2025

Signaux négatifs pour le secteur immobilier US

Dernièrement, les indicateurs macro relatifs au secteur de la construction, en particulier le marché du logement, ont été mauvais. La confiance des promoteurs a chuté, les ventes et la production de logements stagnent à un bas niveau. Un secteur si central pour l’économie paraît gelé. Le président Trump a une idée pour lui redonner du tonus, ce serait de baisser les taux de la Fed de 200-300pdb d’un coup, dans l’espoir de rendre supportable le coût des emprunts immobiliers. Sa fureur anti-Powell a sans doute à voir avec ce marasme. La Fed n’est pas disposée à bouger si vite ni si fort il va sa...