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INFORME DIARIO 29 ABRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME. ESPAÑA: ACS, BANKIA, DIA, AENA, ENCE, IAG, IBERDROLA, NH HOTELES, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA, SECTOR TURÍSTICO EUROPA: AIRBUS, DAIMLER

Consolidando niveles
Nueva jornada de mercados al alza a ambos lados del Atlántico. En el Euro STOXX todos los sectores menos Farma y Telecom cerraron en positivo con Bancos y Seguros liderando las subidas. Por el lado macro, en España la tasa de desempleo subió menos de lo esperado hasta el 14,4% con 579.000 personas afectadas por ERTEs de la crisis del Covid-19. Mientras, P. Sanchez anunció u plan de confinamiento asimétrico por sectores y regiones, que se hará en 4 etapas desde ahora hasta finales de junio. En Francia la confianza del consumidor de abril retrocedió menos de lo esperado. En EE.UU la confianza del consumidor de abril retrocedió más de lo esperado hasta mínimos desde 2014 y el índice manufacturero de la Fed de Richmond de abril retrocedió batiendo mínimos de la serie histórica con el índice de servicios duplicando el mínimo de 2008. En Rdos. Empresariales en EE.UU. Pfizer, Alphabet y Merk & Co mejor de lo esperado mientras que Caterpillar y Polaris peor de lo esperado.
Qué esperamos para hoy
Los principales índices europeos abrirían con ligeras ganancias de hasta el +0,5% impulsados por las expectativas de desconfinamiento progresivo. En estos momentos, los futuros del S&P cotizan con subidas del +0,98% (el S&P 500 cerró con caídas del -0,37% respecto al precio al que cotizaba al cierre de los mercados en Europa). La volatilidad en EE.UU. subió (VIX 33,57%). Los mercados asiáticos cotizan mixtos (Japón -0,06% y Hong Kong +0,16%).
Hoy en la Eurozona la M3 de marzo y el indicador de clima económico de abril. En España las ventas al por menor de marzo. En Alemania la inflación de abril. En EE.UU. reunión de la Fed, el PIB del 1T’20 y las ventas pendientes de viviendas de marzo. En subastas: Italia (6.000 M euros Bonos vto. 2025 y 2030, CCT 2023). En Rdos.Empresariales en EE.UU Mastercard, Bank United, Silicon Laboratories entre otros.


ESPAÑA
ENCE.Rdos. 1T’20 ligeramente mejores de lo esperado. COMPRAR.
Publico ayer al cierre unos Rdos 1T'20 malos que estuvieron ligeramente por encima de lo esperado a nivel EBITDA (16,8 M euros vs 14,8 M euros BS(e) y 16,4 M euros consenso) por mayores ventas (+12% vs BS(e) y +8% vs consenso), siendo algo mejores en generación de caja (DFN 534 vs 553 BS(e)), por lo que esperaríamos una acogida neutra o moderadamente positiva. Con la revisión de estimaciones que planeamos realizar, en un escenario de recuperación en “V” (-40% en EBITDA’20e y -18% media 2021/22) rebajaríamos nuestro P.O. a niveles de 3,8 euros/acc. (+29% potencial) y en uno de recuperación en “U” (-50% en EBITDA’20e y -35% media 2021/22) de 3,4 euros/acc. (+16% potencial). Desde máximos de feb’20 ENC bate al IBEX en un +11%.

IAG. Pre-publicación de Rdos. 1T’20 peores de lo previsto. COMPRAR
El EBIT recurrente queda en -535 M euros (vs -225 M BS(e) y -199 M consenso) por peor evolución en costes (sin detalles). Esperan una pérdida operativa en 2T’20 “significativamente mayor” (por menor capacidad ya conocida; -94% en abril/mayo vs -10,5% en 1T’20). También que el nivel de demanda tardará varios años en recuperarse (en línea con los comentarios del sector) y que habrá reestructuraciones (potencial reducción de ~12.000 empleados en British Airways; ~20% plantilla). Confirma liquidez por 9.500 M euros a 31/3 (6.950 M en efectivo vs 7.350 M el 12/3; implica un consumo de caja ~17 M euros/día; ~530 M euros/mes). Estos Rdos. no reducen la incertidumbre en el valor y esperamos detalles más concretos el 7/5. Mantenemos el P.O. Bajo Revisión.

REPSOL, COMPRAR
Según prensa, REP había incurrido en pérdidas de 180 M euros (135 M euros neto de impuestos BS(e)/ 11% BDI’20e) tras verse obligado por contratos de derivados a ejecutar compras de acciones (30 M acc + 23 M acc) a 13,68 euros/acc. (+75% vs cotización) y 11,56 euros/acc. (+48%) el 19 de marzo y el 23 respectivamente, que a su vez vendió en días siguientes. Esta pérdida en cualquier caso no se reflejará en Rdos. 1T’20 (05/05) porque iría contra patrimonio según nuevos criterios de CNMV. Según la fuente quedarían contratos de derivados a precios elevados por ~17 M acc. más por lo que la pérdida podría incrementarse todavía en 40-50 M euros según nuestras estimaciones. Noticia negativa que aunque no se refleje en Rdos. implicaría un menor valor para REP de -1,4% sobre valoración/ -2% sobre capitalización. Esperamos una reacción negativa del mercado hoy.

Resultados España destacados para la próxima semana.
De los valores que publican Rdos. 1T’20 la semana que viene esperamos impacto positivo en Arcelor donde tras asumir que la visibilidad operativa es muy reducida y con un impacto relevante en EBITDA’20 (-25%/-30%), los Rdos. podrán demostrar la solidez financiera y reducido cash break-even, lo que actuaría de catalizador. Por el lado negativo destacaríamos Applus, donde esperamos que el impacto del Covid-19 siga incrementando la incertidumbre a corto plazo y Dominion, donde esperamos una ralentización en ventas y un deterioro en márgenes que podría sorprender negativamente al mercado.


EUROPA
AIRBUS. Rdos. 1T’20 en línea en EBIT (ex - ajustes) pero en FCF mejor. No ofrecen guidance. COMPRAR
Rdos. 1T’20 por encima en EBIT (-49% vs -54% BS(e) y -55% consenso) por ajustes (ex ajustes, en línea). En Aviación comercial han estado ligeramente algo por debajo (-59% vs -50% BS(e) y -56% consenso), afectado por menor número de entregas. Destacamos que la destrucción de caja fue menor de lo esperado (FCF (ex M&A): -8.030 M euros vs 8.850 BS(e) y -8.271 consenso). No ofrecen guidance, dada la baja visibilidad. La evolución del FCF mejor de lo previsto debe dar un sesgo positivo a la acogida tras la negativa evolución reciente del valor (-36% vs ES50 desde el inicio del Covid-19). Con estos Rdos. revisamos estimaciones un -32% para el periodo 2020/24 en un escenario de vuelta en “V” (-56% en “U”) y situamos P.O. en 79 euros/acc (+59% potencial ,-47% vs antes como media del P.O. de nuestro escenario en V” (91 euros/acc.) y en “U” (66,00 euros/acc.).


DAIMLER. Rdos. completos sin sorpresas, revisamos P.O. a la baja por el Covid-19. COMPRAR
Rdos. 1T’20 sin sorpresas frente a las cifras prepublicadas el 23/04, así la principal incógnita era conocer el margen EBIT, que se situó en 1,9% (vs 2,1% previsto). Por el lado positivo, Mercedes&Vans (60% Ventas), cae sólo un -4% en ventas (vs -16% en unidades) lo que da una favorable indicación del pricing incluso en este entorno. Con todo, revisamos nuestras estimaciones (por Covid-19) en EBIT un -33% para el periodo 2020-22e en nuestro escenario de recuperación en “V” (-43% en “U”) y situamos el P.O. en 36 euros/acc. (+18% potencial, -28% vs antes), como media del P.O. de nuestro escenario en V” (40 euros/acc.) y en “U” (32,00 euros/acc.). Mantenemos COMPRAR y esperamos recupere parte del terreno perdido (-5% vs ES50 desde el inicio del Covid-19) una vez que la situación sanitaria se normalice y las ventas vuelvan a niveles normalizados (previsto para 2S’20).
Resultados EuroStoxx 50 destacados para la próxima semana.
De los valores que publican Rdos. 1T’20 la semana que viene destacamos Linde, donde prevemos que el impacto en volúmenes del Covid-19 sea contrarrestado por una favorable dinámica de precios y las sinergias. Mientras, en MunichRe esperamos una acogida positiva ya que, habiendo anticipado el BDI del 1T’20, esperamos que confirme un impacto manejable en el Ratio de Solvencia, clave para el soporte del dividendo. También esperamos una reacción positiva en Unicredit, donde el impacto en provisiones por Covid-19 ya ha sido anunciado (a diferencia del sector) y no centrará la atención. Por el contrario, en Intesa seguimos viendo riesgo por las comentadas provisiones y el potencial saneamiento que harían en los activos deteriorados de UBI.
Underlyings
Accesso Technology Group

Accesso Technology Group is engaged in the development and application of ticketing, mobile and eCommerce technologies, and virtual queuing solutions for the attractions and leisure industry. Co.'s solutions include accesso LoQueue, accesso Passport, accesso Siriusware and accesso ShoWare. Co. primarily has operations or customers in the U.K., the U.S., Canada, Italy, Germany, Australia, Brazil, and Mexico.

Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA

ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co.'s activities are divided into the following areas: Construction, engaged in the construction of civil works, and residential and non-residential building construction; industrial services, engaged in the development of applied engineering services, installations and the maintenance of industrial infrastructures in the energy, communications and control systems sectors; services, groups together environmental services, the outsourcing of building maintenance services, logistics and transport services; and concessions, mainly engaged in transport infrastructure concessions.

Aena SME SA

Aena SME SA, formerly Aena SA, is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the airports operation. Its activities are divided into four segments: Airports, which comprises Aeronautical subdivision, responsible for the management of airports, jetways, security, handling, cargo and fuel services, among others, as well as Commercial subdivision, including duty-free and specialty stores, restaurant services, car rental, as well as banking services and advertising; Services outside the terminal, which manages real estate assets, such as parking lots, warehouses and lands; International, which comprises operations of Company's subsidiary, Aena Desarrollo Internacional SA, that invests in other airport owners principally in Mexico, Colombia and the United Kingdom; and Others, encompassing corporate activities. It manages tourism, hub and regional airports, as well as heliports and general aviation areas. Furthermore, its destination range comprises Europe, the Americas, Asia and Africa.

Airbus Group SE

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria is an international financial group, engaged primarily on providing banking services and consumer finance to private individuals and businesses in Spain and Portugal; providing real estate activity in Spain; providing services to international companies and investment banking, capital markets and treasury management services to clients; and providing the banking, insurance and pension businesses in Mexico and the U.S., as well as in South America.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A. Sponsored ADR

Bankia S.A.

Bankia is a financial institution based in Spain. Co. is primarily engaged in operations in the banking sector. Co.'s business operations are structured into seven areas: Retail Banking, Business Banking, Private Banking, Asset Management and Bancassurance, Capital Markets and Holdings. Co. offers financial products and services to various customer segments, such as individuals, small and medium enterprises, large corporations, as well as public and private institutions. As of Dec 31 2014, Co. had total assets and total customer deposits of Euro233,648,603,000 and Euro106,806,698,000 respectively.

CaixaBank SA

Caixabank is an investment company based in Spain. Co. is involved in investment portfolio management activities across two areas: Services and Financial Business and Insurance. In the services area, Co. provides investment solutions for companies involved in the infrastructure, energy, services and entertainment sectors. In the financial business and insurance area, Co. is engaged in the investments for international banks, insurance and specialist financial services. Co. focuses most of its banking investments in India, China, the U.S., and Central and Eastern Europe with a particular interest in retail banking. Co. is also involved in the disinvestments activities.

CIE Automotive S.A.

CIE Automotive is the parent company of an industrial group formed by several companies that are engaged in the design, manufacture and sale of automobile component and sub-units on the world market. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the bio-fuels business which is in the initial stages of development and is made up of various companies devoted to the production and distribution of bio-fuels.

Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion SA

Distribuidora Internacional De Alimentacion is a supermarket and convenience store group based in Spain. Co. is engaged in the retail trade of food through cut-price self-service supermarkets and franchise establishments. Co. is engaged in the operation of stores located in Spain, France, Portugal, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil and China.

Ebro Foods SA

Ebro Puleva is a food manufacturing group based in Spain. Co. is engaged in the manufacture and marketing, export and import of sugar, rice, dairy products, and products destined for agriculture development and human and animal consumption. Co.'s brand names include: Panzani®, Ronzoni®, American Beauty®, Skinner®, Lancia®, Catelli®, Healthy Harvest®, etc. in pastas and sauces, Mahatma®, Sucess®, Carolina®, Lustucru®, Taureau Aile®, Oryza®, Bosto®, Reis-Fit®, Riceland®, Danrice®, Risella®, Brillante®, Nomen®, La Cigala® and La Fallera® in the rice sector, Puleva®, Ram® and El Castillo® in the dairy sector, and Azucarera® and Sucran® in the sugar sector.

ENCE Energia y Celulosa SA

Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.

Fauji Cement

Fauji Cement is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of cement.

Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas S.A.

Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas is the parent company of a group engaged in sanitation services, cleaning, maintaining, purification and distribution of water, construction of highways, hydraulic works, marine works, air and rail transport infrastructure, urban developments, housing, non-residential buildings, office buildings, toll highways, parking garages, marinas and water treatment plants. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cement and cement infrastructures, such as precast concrete elements; and in the financial markets, and real estate development, leasing and tourism.

Iberdrola SA

Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.

International Consolidated Airlines Group SA

International Airlines Group is an international scheduled airline and global premium airlines. Co.'s principal place of business is London with significant presence at Heathrow, Gatwick and London City airports.

NH Hotel Group SA

NH Hotel is engaged in the operation and management of hotels throughout Spain, the Benelux countries, Germany, and South America.

Nokia Oyj

Nokia is an Internet and communications technology company based in Finland. Co.'s operations are focused on three businesses: network infrastructure software, hardware and services, which Co. offers through Networks; location intelligence, which Co. provides through HERE; and advanced technology development and licensing, which Co. pursues through Technologies. Co. maintains a global presence with operations and Researh & Development facilities located in Europe, North America and Asia, and sales in approximately 130 countries. Co. has an installed base of around 600 customers worldwide and these operators serve over 4 billion subscribers.

Orange SA

Orange provides consumers, businesses and other telecommunications operators with a wide range of services including fixed telephony and mobile telecommunications, data transmission, Internet and multimedia, and other services. Co.'s portfolio comprises business lines (fixed-line, mobile, Internet), focusing on all customer segments (small and medium-sized businesses, multinationals), and personal and professional services for home, office, travel, and mobile. Co. manages eight operating segments: France, Poland, Spain, Rest of the Europe, Africa and Middle East, Other non-controlling equity interests, Enterprise Communication Services, and International Carriers and Shared Services.

Red Electrica Corp. SA

Red Electrica is engaged in the transmission of electrical energy, the operation of the system and the management of the transmission network in the Spanish electricity system. In addition, through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the acquisition, holding and management of foreign securities, co-ordination of international exchanges, provision of telecommunications services for third parties, provision of consultancy, engineering and construction services outside the Spanish electricity system, securing of funds, carrying out of financial transactions and provision of financial services.

Repsol SA

Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.

Safran S.A.

Safran designs, develops and manufactures high technology electronics through three businesses: Aerospace, Defense and Security. Aerospace includes Aerospace Propulsion (propulsion systems for commercial aircraft, military transport, training and combat aircraft, rocket engines, civil and military helicopters) and Aircraft Equipment (mechanical, hydromechanical and electromechanical equipment); Defense (optronic, avionic and electronic systems); and Security (biometric technologies for fingerprint, iris and face recognition, identity management products, access management and transaction security, including tomographic systems for detection of dangerous or illicit substances in baggage).

Telefonica SA

Telefonica is engaged in the provision of public or private telecommunications services, including ancillary or complementary telecommunications services or related services. Co.'s fixed business includes: traditional fixed telecommunication services, Internet and broadband multimedia services, data and business-aplications services, and wholesale services for telecommunication operators. Co. also provides a range of mobile and related services and products to consumer and business customers, including mobile voice services, value added services, mobile data and Internet services, wholesale services, corporate services, roaming, fixed wireless, and, trunking and paging.

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