IBERIAN DAILY 28 FEBRUARY + 4Q'24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACERINOX, ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ACS, AMADEUS, COLONIAL, ENCE, FERROVIAL, GRIFOLS, MELIÁ HOTELES, MERLIN PROPERTIES, PUIG BRANDS, REPSOL, SACYR, VISCOFAN.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Losses in Europe
Despite many companies releasing their 4Q’24 results yesterday, the session was marked by Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs to be placed on Europe and by the disappointing weekly jobless claims in the US. The IBEX weathered the storm better and remained near 2008 highs above 13,200 points. Meanwhile, in the STOXX 600, Travel & Leisure and Telecoms rose the most, with Autos and Media bringing up the rear. On the macro side, in the euro zone the economic sentiment index for February rose more than expected thanks to the improvement in Industry. The ECB’s meeting minutes showed confidence that inflation will remain low, suggesting there are also risks of lower growth rates. In Spain, February’s inflation rose as expected to 3.0% YoY, with the core figure plunging to 2.1%. In the US. D. Trump announced another 10% tariff to Chinese imports that would come into force on the 4th of March, along with those to Canada and Mexico where he would have apparently changed his view after announcing last Tuesday they would be postponed until April. In Japan, January’s industrial output fell in lien with expectations and retail sales rose, as expected. In US business results, Warner Bros. and HP came in worse than expected, and Dell beat its earnings expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open with losses of more than -1.0% in view of the announcement of new tariffs on China (that has already threatened with its own tariffs) by the Trump administration, with cyclicals with direct or indirect exposure to China like Basic Materials and Autos being hit the hardest. S&P futures are up +0.11% (the S&P 500 ended -1.27% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are falling (China’s CSI 300 -1.61% and Japan’s Nikkei -2.80%).
Today in Germany we will learn the number of unemployed and February’s inflation and in the US personal income and the core consumption deflator for January. In US business results, Bain and Paramount, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
ACCIONA. Better results than expected thanks to Infra and Nordex. OVERWEIGHT.
The sales’24 reached € 19.19 Bn (+12.7% vs. +10.7% BS(e) and +12.3% consensus) and EBITDA came in at € 2.46 Bn (+23.9% vs. +8.6% BS(e) and +8.8% consensus), with EBITDA excluding capital gains of € 2.38 Bn (above the guidance of € 2 Bn). ANA announced a DPS’24 of € 5.25/sh. (+8.3%, 4.5% yield), above expectations. The reception would have a positive slant. Since 2024 the stock has fallen -9% in absolute terms (-39% vs. IBEX), and in 2025 it has risen +6% in absolute terms (-8% vs. IBEX).
ACCIONA ENERGÍA. FY2024 Results in line with expectations. OVERWEIGHT
Sales’24 fell -14.% (vs. -16.8% BS(e) and -11.3% consensus), with weak production and below expectations (23.8GWh, +11% vs. 2023 and vs. 24.7 BS(e)), slightly offset by average Price capture above expectations of € 69.00/MWh (vs. € 65.00/MWh expected and -20.4% vs. 2023). EBITDA’24 came in at € 1.05 Bn (-18.3% vs. -20.6% BS(e) and -16.0% consensus), meeting the guidance (around € 1 Bn). As for the guidance’25: (i) it foresees around € 1 Bn of EBITDA of operations (€ 1.5/1.75 Bn including rotation vs. € 1.04 Bn BS(e) and € 1.5 Bn Bloomberg consensus), and (ii) around € 3.5 Bn of NFD (vs. € 4.1 Bn BS(e) excluding 2025 asset rotation). The company announced a € 0.44/sh. DPS (-8.3%, 2.4% yield), above our € 0.25/sh. estimate and consensus (€ 0.38/sh.). We do not expect a significant impact from these results in line with expectations, with a guidance stressing the need to rotate assets (to improve the balance sheet) and the unfavourable market conditions in 2024, which take away some traction in 2025 despite the clear improvement in prices. The stock has greatly underperformed (-32% since 2024 and +1.8% in 2025 in absolute terms, and -62% and -13% vs. IBEX, respectively), and we believe there is value to be generated as assets are rotated and the improving market conditions (prices and production) are passed on to the P&L statement.
ACERINOX. 4Q’24 results below expectations in EBITDA due to inventory adjustments. OVERWEIGHT
The results came in below expectations in EBITDA (€ 150 M vs. € 208 M BS(e) and € 173 M consensus) due to adjustments from inventory regularisation (€ -58 M). This EBITDA includes € +146 M from Bahru, € -21 M from the acquisition of Haynes and € -12 M of provisions, which decreases visibility on the comparison to the consensus. As for the outlook, the company expects 1Q’25 EBITDA to be slightly higher than the adjusted 4Q’24 figure (€ 91 M, vs. € 111 M in 1Q’24), with stainless steel recovering starting in March. The consensus assumes € 615 M of EBITDA’25e (ex-Haynes), and thus in order to reach these levels we would have to see clear improvement this year.
ACS. 4Q’24 results in line on the operating level and better in cash. OVERWEIGHT
The company released 4Q’24 results above expectations on the operating level (€ 777 M of EBITDA vs. € 703 M BS(e) and € 714 M consensus; +61% vs. 4Q’23). NFD fell by € -1.70 Bn on the quarter to € 702 M (excl. IFRS 16 and factoring), beating our estimate (€ 1.05 Bn), favoured by very solid working capital performance (€+1.41 Bn in 4Q’24 vs. € 1.25 Bn BS(e)). Most of the figures from these results were already known after the release of Hochtief’s results (76.6% ACS; ~75% EBITDA) and those of Abertis (~46% ACS), but we especially highlight the performance in Dragados, where EBITDA grew +45% vs. 4Q’23 (vs. +12% BS(e)). We do not expect a significant impact after the stock has risen +7% YtD (-14% vs. IBEX).
AMADEUS. Better 4Q’24 results, guidance’25 in line and share buyback announced. OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’24 results beat expectations in sales (+14% vs. +10% BS(e) and +11% consensus) with better performance in Air Distribution (+5% vs. BS(e)); EBITDA is slightly better (+3% vs. BS(e) and +1% consensus). As for the guidance’25, the company indicates revenues growing +9%/+13% (vs. +8.9% BS(e) and +9.1% consensus). As for EBITDA’25, AMS expects a range of € 2.49-2.61 Bn (vs. € 2.57 Bn BS() and € 2.59 Bn consensus). Moreover, the company announced a share buyback programme for the next 12 months for a maximum of € 1.3 Bn (4.2% market cap). With these results beating expectations and the improved shareholder remuneration (6% total yield’25), we expect a positive reception after the stock has fallen -12% vs. IBEX in 2025.
COLONIAL. Good results with dividend announcement. OVERWEIGHT.
Good results and in line on the operating level whereas the appraisal shows a change of trend, with rises in 2H’24. Rental revenues: € 391 M (+3.7% vs. +3.4% BS(e)); Recurring EPS: € 0.33 M (+3.4% vs. +0.3% BS(e)). LfL GAV grew +3% (after falling -9% in 2023), with a positive performance in the 2H’24. NTA per share dropped -3%. 2025 Guidelines: The company foresees a recurring EPS of € 0.32-0.35 (vs. BS(e) € 0.33) and announced a € 0.30 DPS (+11%, vs. 0.27 BS(e), 5.3% yield), which is surprising as it means a payout over cashflow near 100%. LTV ended 2024 at 44% (EPRA).We believe that these results should lead to a good market reaction.
ENCE. Results in line with expectations and better in debt. Good prospects for pulp. OVERWEIGHT.
We do not foresee a relevant impact from the results that are in line with expectations (EBITDA’24 +84%, 4Q’24 -52%), although slightly better in cash (1.9x NFD/EBITDA). The prospects for pulp prices are positive, in line with our idea of a favourable cycle over the coming years. The share price has climbed +10.4% in 2024 (-4% vs. IBEX).
FERROVIAL. 4Q’24 results below expectations on the operating level due to Construction. Shareholder remuneration improved. OVERWEIGHT
The 4Q’24 results came in below expectations on the operating level (€ 334 M of EBITDA vs. € 357 M BS(e) and € 368 M consensus) due to weaker performance in Construction (€ 106 M of EBITDA vs. € 123 M consensus), where the margin reached 5.3% EBITDA in 4Q’24 (vs. 6.2% BS(e) and consensus). Net cash ex infra rose by € +2.21 Bn to € 1.79 Bn (vs. € 2.13 Bn BS(e)), driven by divestitures. The company raised its guidance’24-26e for shareholder remuneration to a minimum of €~2.2 Bn (vs. € 1.7 Bn previously) and has proposed € 1.07 Bn for 2025e (scrip+buybacks), which would mean €~1.47/sh. BS(e) (+29% vs. 2024; 3.4% yield). We do not expect a significant impact following the recent performance (+7% in 2025; -7% vs. IBEX).
MELIÁ. EBITDA above expectations. Positive guidance’25. OVERWEIGHT.
4Q’24 results above expectations in EBITDA (+8.1% vs. -0.5% BS(e) and +6.3% consensus), with a significant margin improvement vs. expectations (22.9% vs. 20.7% BS(e) and 21.5% consensus). This allowed the company to beat its target of at least € 525 M of EBITDA’24. For 2025 the company does not see slowdown, expecting RevPAR to grow ~+5% (vs +1% BS(e)), with a positive performance of the Canary islands and the Caribbean in the 1Q’25. MEL released a new asset valuation with a +16% higher NAV BS(e) vs. previous levels. We expect a positive market reaction following the share price underperformance seen last year (-31% vs. IBEX35).
MERLIN. Solid FY2024 results, although the FFO’25 guidance is below expectations. OVERWEIGHT.
Solid results in line with expectations in rents, and better in FFO. Gross rents € 500 M (+5% vs. +5% BS(e) and +5% consensus); FFO € 311 M (+9% vs. +7% BS(e) and +6% consensus). LfL rents rose +3% due to indexation, occupancy and price increases. NTA came in at € 14.32 (-5% vs. Dec’23) due to the capital increase, with stable LfL GAV (date centres, CDs, offsetting drops in the rest of the portfolio). FFO’25 guidance below our estimate, suggesting € 0.54/sh. (-2% vs. 2024, vs. € 0.60 BS(e)), which we understand is due to the development and ramp-up of the CDs, which will drain cash flows in the short term. LTV fell to 28.3% (vs. 35.0% in Dec’23). With all this in mind, we see this set of results as positive on the whole.
PUIG BRANDS. Slightly better FY2024 results and targets’25 in line. OVERWEIGHT
The FY2024 results slightly beat expectations (adj. EBITDA +12.3% vs. +11.2% BS(e) and +10.7% consensus), with the EBITDA margin rising around +20bps to 20.2% (vs. target of stability vs. 20% in 2024 and ~20% BS(e) and consensus), thanks to the positive performance in the Fragrances segment (~74% sales/89% EBIT). Targets’25: +6%/+8% LfL in sales (vs. +10.9% in 2024 and >+7% consensus) and around a +20bps improvement to the adj. EBITDA margin (meaning ~20.4% margin vs. +30bps consensus to ~20.3%). The company announced a dividend of €~212 M (~2% yield, payable in June). We expect a positive reaction following the solid operating performance and indications for 2025 (reasonable margin expansion even against a backdrop of more moderate growth in the sector). The stock has risen +7% in absolute terms in 2025 (-8% vs. IBEX and vs. +2% L’Oréal and +9% Interparfums).
SACYR. Better 4Q’24 results on the operating level with Good cash performance. OVERWEIGHT.
4Q’24 results came in above expectations in EBITDA (€ 404 M vs. € 354 M BS(e) and € 371 M consensus), with a positive operating CF performance, which totalled € 489 M on the quarter (+35% vs. 4Q’23). This means EBITDA conversion to cash of 121% (~96% in cumulative terms), above 79% BS(e). Separately, recourse NFD fell € -69 M on the quarter to € 146 M, in line with our € 151 M estimate. We expect a positive market reaction following its recent performance (+5% in 2025; -9% vs. IBEX).
VIDRALA. Good results and above expectations in margins. UNDERWEIGHT
Our first impression is that the results are good in margins (28.6% vs. 28.1 BS(e) and vs. 25.3% in 2023) although below expectations in sales, due partially to the strong depreciation of the BRL in the 4Q on a standalone basis (-14%). Sales: € 1.59 Bn (+1.9% vs. +2.4% BS(e)); EBITDA: € 454 M (+15.3% vs. +13.9% BS(e)). The strong margin improvement is explained by the geographic mix, the incorporation of Vidroporto in Brazil (40% EBITDA margin) and the departure from Italy (25% margin in 2023). The company announced the payment of a € 0.426 DPS (+10%, vs. 0.5 BS(e), 0.4% yield). We expect a positive market reaction.
VISCOFAN. 4Q’24 results and guidance’25 in line with expectations. OVERWEIGHT.
4Q’24 results were practically in line with expectations in both sales (+2.1% vs. +2.4% BS(e) and +6.1% consensus) and EBITDA (+4.1% vs. +3.8% BS(e) and +8.0% consensus), although below the market consensus. Margins were in line with expectations, with a +50bps improvement vs. 4Q’23. As for the 2025 guidance, VIS foresees +5/+8% revenue growth (vs. +6% BS(e) and consensus) and +8/12% EBITDA growth (vs. +10% BS(e) and consensus), meaning a margin range of between 23.7%/25.3% (vs. 24.6% BS(e) and consensus). The company announced a total dividend of € 3.10/sh. (5.3% yield). We expect a positive market reaction due to the share price underperformance (-16% vs. Ibex 35 in the past year).
Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.
Acerinox is the parent company of a group engaged in the manufacture and sale of flat and long stainless steel products, and stainless steel wires. Co.'s major products include slabs, billets, black coils, plates, hot-rolled coils, hot-rolled sheets, flat bars, hot-rolled re-bars, hot-rolled black bars, engraved sheets, cold-rolled coils, cold-rolled sheets and circles. Co. also provides long stainless steel products, such as wire rods, angles, hot rolled flat bars, hot rolled re-bars, reinforced bars in coils, cold rolled re-bars, hot rolled black bars, cold drawn bars, and smooth turned bars. In addition, Co. offers wires, welding wire bars, and bars for electrodes.
ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co.'s activities are divided into the following areas: Construction, engaged in the construction of civil works, and residential and non-residential building construction; industrial services, engaged in the development of applied engineering services, installations and the maintenance of industrial infrastructures in the energy, communications and control systems sectors; services, groups together environmental services, the outsourcing of building maintenance services, logistics and transport services; and concessions, mainly engaged in transport infrastructure concessions.
Amadeus Fire is engaged in the provision of temporary personnel, permanent placement, interim and project management as well as the provision of training in the areas of tax, finance and accounting and financial control. Co. operates in two segments: temporary staffing/interim and project management/permanent placement, which focuses on the four divisions of accounting, office, banking and information technology services; and training, which provides corporate and private customers training with a particular focus on finance and accounting. Co. only provides its services in Germany.
Amadeus is a transaction processor for the global travel and tourism industry. Co. provides transaction processing power and technology solutions to both travel providers (including full service carriers and low-cost airlines, hotels, rail operators, cruise and ferry operators, car rental companies and tour operators) and travel agencies (both online and offline). Co. acts both as a worldwide network connecting travel providers and travel agencies through a processing platform for the distribution of travel products and services (through the Distribution business), and as a provider of a portfolio of IT solutions which automate certain business processes (through the IT solutions business).
Ence Energia Y Celulosa is engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of wood pulp and derivatives. Co. divides its activities into the following two business lines: Forest Division: Co. manages timberlands in South America and the Iberian Peninsula. Co. is involved in trading of wood, and supplies solid wood products including: plywood, sawn timber, parquet flooring and glued-edge paneling. Co. is involved in forest and environmental consulting. Pulp Division and Energy Production: Co. is engaged in the production of Eucalyptus globulus-based TCF and ECF paper pulp. Co. is also involved in the generation of electricity through biomass power producing plants.
Ferrovial is a transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in operations in the transportation sector. Co. specializes in the design, construction, management, administration and maintenance of transport infrastructures. Co.'s services range also includes the maintenance of parking lots, and land-, sea- and air-based transport networks. Co. is also engaged in the promotion and operation of short-stay parking lots, parking regulation and management services and promotion and sale of residents' parking.
Melia Hotels International is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, management and operation of hotels. Co. operates its hotel network in Germany, Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Cabo Verde, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Croatia, Cuba, Egypt, Spain, United States, France, Greece, Netherlands, Indonesia, Italy, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Portugal, Puerto Rico, United Kingdom, Dominican Republic, Singapore, Switzerland, Tunisia, Uruguay, Venezuela and Vietnam under the followings brandnames: Paradisus Resorts®, Melia Hotels & Resorts®, TRYP Hoteles® and Sol Hotels & Resorts®.
Merlin Properties SOCIMI SA is a Spain-based company engaged in the operation of a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on the acquisition, management and rental of commercial properties located in the Iberian Peninsula, primarily in Spain. The Company's activities are divided into the following segments: Office buildings, operating a portfolio of office space; High-street retail, engaged in leasing retail stores; Shopping centers, engaged in managing department stores; Logistics, operating logistics warehouses and distribution centers, and Others. The Company's other activities include property management services rendered to third parties.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
Sacyr is the parent company of a group engaged in the acquisition, development and construction of urban properties for their subsequent rental or resale. Co. primarily leases and sells office buildings and complexes, housing units, and shopping centers. Co. is also engaged in the operation of urban car parking facilities. Co. offers services related to the real estate industry such as technical assistance in energy savings, inventory management, architectural design, telecommunications management, property maintenance, as well as gardening and landscaping. Co. also provides consulting services in the real estate fund management sector.
Vidrala SA is a Spain-based company principally engaged in the glass industry. The Company operates through two segments: Spain and European Union. The Company's activities include the production, distribution and sale of glass bottles and containers used in the food and beverages industries. The Company conducts its own research and development (R&D) operations. It operates production plants and melting furnaces located in such countries, as Portugal, France, Belgium and Italy. The Company owns such subsidiaries as Crisnova Vidrio SA, Inverbeira Sociedad de Promocion de Empresas SA, Gallo Vidro SA, Castellar Vidrio SA, Corsico Vetro SRL, MD Verre SA, Omega Immobiliere et Financiere SA, Investverre SA and CD Verre SA.
Viscofan is the parent company of the Viscofan Group. Co. is divided into two major operational subgroups. The companies comprising the Naturin GmbH subgroup are engaged in the manufacture and distribution of artificial casings (small and big diameter collagen and plastics) for the meat industry. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary IAN, S.A., Co. also manufactures and distributes canned vegetables (asparagus, olives and tomato).
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