IBERIAN DAILY 10 FEBRUARY + 4Q’24 RESULTS. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)
NEWS SUMMARY: ACERINOX, ARCELORMITTAL, CHANGES MID&SMALL CAP PORTFOLIO, ENERGY SECTOR, NATURGY, TALGO.At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 4Q’24 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.
Hanging on Trump’s every word
With all eyes on each new statement made by D. Trump (after this week the tariffs on Canada and China go into effect, as those placed on Mexico have been delayed), European stock markets ended in positive numbers in a week in which the IBEX reached levels unseen since 2008. Within the STOXX 600, Basic Resourced and Banks ended with the biggest gains, whereas Consumer Goods (luxury) and Autos were the worst performers. On the macro side, in the US job creation came in below expectations, while salary gains rose more than expected and the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly. On another note, D. Trump announced he will impose 25% tariffs on aluminium (Canada is the main exporter with 79% of the total) and on steel (Canada, Brazil and Mexico), launching a threat to the European automobile sector. In Germany, the Chancellor-elect F. Merz (CDU) showed his willingness to modify the strict fiscal rules to raise defence spending at least to 3.0% of GDP). In China, January’s inflation rose more than expected in January.
What we expect for today
Stock markets would open with slight gains that would dilute over the course of the session, with Autos once again dragged down by Trump’s tariff threats and tech stocks (chips) by the drop in TSMC’s sales. Currently, S&P futures are up +0.3% (the S&P 500 ended -0.2% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are rising (China’s CSI 300 +0.21% and Japan’s Nikkei +0.14%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn February’s Sentix index. In US business results, McDonald’s and Lowe’s, among others, will release their earnings.
COMPANY NEWS
ACERINOX/ARCELORMITTAL, BOTH OVERWEIGHT
According to the press, Trump would be planning to announce a 25% tariff on imports of aluminium and all types of steel (which could also include stainless). Sources have not specified the countries affected by these tariffs.
Positive news if confirmed. In the case of ACX, the US currently accounts for 80% of EBITDA, and thus a measure to raise tariffs would be have a net positive effect, and we understand it could initially contribute up to an additional € 100 M of EBITDA (16% of EBITDA’25 forecast by the consensus). In the case of MTS, although we believe the impact could be positive against the current backdrop (in line with recent comments made by the company), it should be very limited, as the weight of the US on the company is smaller (
Acerinox is the parent company of a group engaged in the manufacture and sale of flat and long stainless steel products, and stainless steel wires. Co.'s major products include slabs, billets, black coils, plates, hot-rolled coils, hot-rolled sheets, flat bars, hot-rolled re-bars, hot-rolled black bars, engraved sheets, cold-rolled coils, cold-rolled sheets and circles. Co. also provides long stainless steel products, such as wire rods, angles, hot rolled flat bars, hot rolled re-bars, reinforced bars in coils, cold rolled re-bars, hot rolled black bars, cold drawn bars, and smooth turned bars. In addition, Co. offers wires, welding wire bars, and bars for electrodes.
Talgo is engaged in designing, manufacturing, repairing and maintaining the railway rolling stock, as well as the manufacturing, assembling, repairing and maintaining the engines, machinery and parts of the railway systems. Co. has an industrial presence in seven countries: Spain, Germany, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S.A. Co. has an active fleet in Europe, Asia and North America that comprises of 94 high-speed trains and more than 1,400 Talgo tilting passenger cars. Also, Co. purchases, redesigns, constructs, leases and sells all types of real estate.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.