EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

IBERIAN DAILY 06 NOVEMBER + 3Q'25 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AENA, ARCELORMITTAL, FCC, LOGISTA, ROVI.

At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 3Q’25 results to be released over the coming days in Spain.

Stock markets recover
It was another session that ended better than it began for European markets that, after the opening bell in the US and the solid macro data releases, shifted towards green numbers. In the STOXX 600, all sectors except Real Estate, Telecoms and Pharma ended with gains, led by Autos and Energy. On the macro side, in the euro zone the final services PMI was unexpectedly raised. In Spain, the services PMI rose more than expected to its highest level of the year. In the US, the non-manufacturing ISM rose more than expected a high since Feb’25, driven mainly by new orders and employment. The ADP private employment survey for October rose more than expected after two straight negative readings. In politics, Trump called for an end to the filibuster in order to pass the 2026 budgets, and although the Republicans are optimistic regarding an agreement to end the shutdown. Meanwhile, 40 airports announced a -10% cut to flights. Lastly, in the Supreme Court of Justice there is much scepticism on the legality of Trump’s tariffs. In Brazil, the Central Bank kept the Selic reference rate at 15.0%, as expected. In China, the Govt. banned the use of foreign chips receiving public funds. In Japan, real wages fell into a contraction zone in September. In US business results, McDonald’s released earnings below expectations.
What we expect for today
European stock markets would open flat to later rise by +0.3%. Currently, S&P futures are down -0.11% (the S&P 500 ended -0.36% lower vs. the European closing bell). Asian markets are climbing (China’s CSI 300 +1.44% and Japan’s Nikkei +1.33%).
Today in the euro zone we will learn September’s retail sales, in Spain and Germany September’s industrial output and in the UK the BoE will meet. In US business results, Airbnb, Ralph Lauren, Warner Bros and Moderna, among others, will release their earnings.


COMPANY NEWS

AENA. Possible freezing of airport fees. UNDERWEIGHT
Yesterday the Senate approved a proposal to include in the Sustainable Mobility draft the freezing of airport fees over the 2027-31 period and the initiation of a new incentive plan (yet to be defined) to strengthen regional airports. The amendment must be ratified by the Congress. Aena confirmed yesterday in an official communiqué that if the proposal is passed, the company will review its investment proposal over the 2027-31 period for DORA III (e 12.89 Bn, of which € 9.99 Bn are regulated investments). The news once again raises uncertainty on the airport investment/fee plan, although it should not have an impact until Congress ratifies the amendment passed by the Senate yesterday. That said, we recall that the day AENA announced its investment plan in DORA III, the stock ended the session by falling around -5%, due to market fears on the rest of the components making up fees (WACC, costs, etc.), and thus we will have to wait to see the proposal for DORA III. In any event, AENA is well positioned to undertake these investments, with a NFD/EBITDA ratio below 2x. Our T.P. is based on flat fees for the DORA III regulatory period, with traffic growing +3% on average.

ARCELORMITTAL. Better 3Q’25 results in EBITDA, with optimism towards the new regulation. We raise our T.P. to € 36.00/sh. OVERWEIGHT
The 3Q’25 results beat expectations in EBITDA (-4.6% vs. -6.6% BS(e) and -7.4% consensus), although worse than 2Q’25 in EBITDA/t (US$ 111 vs. US$ 135/t in 1Q’25), in a seasonally-weaker quarter, but in any case it is also below 3Q’24 levels. By regions, in North America we highlight that the consolidation of Calvert offsets the weakness in Mexico. On the outlook level, the company is positive towards next year, believing the new regulation in Europe should favour an operating improvement. Against this backdrop, we carry our model over to 2026 and raise our EBITDA forecasts for the 2026-28 period by +11.8%, leading us to raise our T.P. by +7.3% to € 36.00/sh. (+10.7% upside). The results show no big surprises on the operating level, awaiting the implementation of the new regulation in Europe for 2026, which should serve as a driver for the stock on the operating level.

FCC. 3Q’25 Results slightly below expectations on the operating level. OVERWEIGHT
3Q’25 Results slightly came in slightly below expectations on the operating level (EBITDA € 383 M vs. € 400 M BS(e)) with sales faring better (+7.9% vs. +5.3% BS(e)) but with weaker EBITDA margins (15.4% vs. 16.4% BS(e)). NFD rose by 10% to € 3.52 Bn (2.3x NFD/EBITDA vs. 2.1x in 1H’25), fully in line with our estimate (€ ~3.49 Bn; 2.3x NFD/EBITDA). In short, slightly weaker 3Q’25 Results on the perating level where we do not foresee a relevant impact. The share price has climbed +26% in 2025 (-13% vs. IBEX).

LOGISTA. Results, dividend and 2026 guidance in line with expectations. UNDERWEIGHT.
Our first impression is that the Results are in line with expectations. FY2025: Sales: € 1.81 Bn (+3% vs. +3% BS(e) and +3% consensus); EBIT: € 378 M (-2% vs. -2% BS(e)); Net Profit: € 281 M (-9% vs. -10% BS(e)). 2025 has been a poor year due to the weakness in the transport business, particularly in long-haul, hit by the consumption weakness in Europe. The company has announced a final dividend’25 of € 1.53 (+0% vs. 2024, 5.3% yield, vs. € 1.53 BS(e)). As for the 2026 guidance, LOG suggested mid single-digit growth in adjusted EBIT (organic and ex POI) vs. +4% BS(e)). We do not foresee any impact from these results.

ROVI. 3Q’25 Results in line on the operating level. Guidance’25 unchanged with guidance’26 announcement below expectations. OVERWEIGHT
3Q’25 Results were in line on the operating level (EBITDA € 84 M vs. € 83 M consensus and € 79 M BS(e)) and marked by the weakness of its HBPM division (-6% vs. 3Q’24 vs. -9% BS(e)). No surprises in NFD, which fell slightly (€ 7 M) to € 72 M (0.4x NFD/EBITDA; vs. € 81 M BS(e)). The company kept its 2025 guidance unchanged of a ~-5% drop in operating revenues (vs. -6% BS(e) and -5% consensus) and announced its guidance’26 of an increase in revenues at the top end of a 10% range and low end of a 20% range, below expectations (+15% consensus and +14% BS(e)). We do not rule out a negative market reaction but limited following the recent poor share price performance (-10% in 2 weeks; -12% vs. IBEX).