EUR 100.00 For Business Accounts Only

ARCELOR MITTAL: 1Q’21 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

1Q'21 vs. 1Q'20 Results
Sales: US$ 16.193 Bn (+9.1% vs. +6.0% BS(e));
EBITDA: US$ 3.242 Bn (+235.3% vs. +172.0% BS(e) and +206.6% consensus);
Net Profit: US$ 2.285 Bn (US$ -1.120.0 M in 1Q'20 vs. US$ 1.105 Bn BS(e));

The results came in far above expectations, with EBITDA growing by +235.3% vs. 1Q’20 (vs. +172.0% BS(e) and +206.6% consensus), with Brazil (23% EBITDA), Europe (22%) and Mining (42%) standing out. Thus, the EBITDA/t ratio stood at US$ 197.00/t on the quarter (vs. US$ 102.00 BS(e) and US$ 100.00 in 4Q’20), meaning that the sharp price hike will continue going forward.
Moreover, the outlook remains positive, and MTS continues to stand out in a balanced demand & supply scenario with low stockpiles. The company expects the apparent demand to stand, at least, in the high range given in February (+4.5%/+5.5%), which provides a positive slant. Bearing this in mind, we believe that despite the stock’s good performance YTD (+24.6% vs. IBEX35) there will be a positive share price reaction. Therefore, we expect to raise our estimates (+80% in EBITDA’21), which would leave our T.P. at €>30.00/sh. (+15%), and thus, we continue to recommend BUY.